Michael Guerin: Aussies playing above odds

The Wallabies' impressive backs, including Quade Cooper (with ball), will give Australia a good chance of winning - if it doesn't rain. Photo / Richard Robinson

What do the money men know about tonight's Bledisloe Cup test that you don't?

While most rugby fans are expecting the Eden Park battle to be a thriller, the New Zealand TAB - and more surprisingly their Australian counterparts - are giving the Wallabies virtually no chance of beating the All Blacks.

Not only do the TAB rate the Aussies as outsiders, they are willing to bet you the All Blacks will win by more than 10 points in a match they expect to hold over $1 million of bets on.

Considering the Wallabies won the last clash between the rugby superpowers and demolished the South Africans in similar style to the All Blacks two weeks ago, those prices seem out of whack with what has happened on the field in the last fortnight.

"To be honest, I agree," says TAB rugby spokesman Mark Stafford.

"There are four of us who come up with the opening prices, sort of by committee, and I voted for the All Blacks to be a longer price but I got outvoted.

"And it looks like the other guys [who include match commentator Grant Nisbett] were right because we have already seen punters taking the $1.25 for the All Blacks.

Eden Park was the most important factor.

"The home team always gets an advantage and no ground in New Zealand gives the ABs an edge as much as Eden Park."

All four of the TAB's rugby odds committee believe the All Blacks will win and the 10.5-point start they are giving away is more an indication of how short their winning price is.

"We aren't all thinking the All Blacks will win by that much but with them being $1.25 the mathematical equations we use mean the points start has to be around that mark."

Which suggests punters looking to make money off tonight's test could be wise to take the Aussies with the 10-point start, meaning you can cheer for the All Blacks but still make money from a close contest.

Stafford says the All Blacks could even start shorter if there is more rain in Auckland before kick off.

"We think Aussies' only hope is to run the ball because like everybody else we have seen how good their backs are. I rate them the best in the world.

"But if it becomes a tighter game with more forward play then that will help the All Blacks and I could see the really big punters backing them into $1.20.

"Most of those really big players will wait until the weather becomes clear or even bet during the game."

Betting "in-play" is becoming huge in rugby and would explode if Australia were able to score first tonight.

"Traditionally Bledisloe Cup games are our biggest matches of the year outside of say a Football World Cup final or something like that.

"So there will be a lot of money floating around for this game and if we are wrong we will feel it."

Betting on the Rugby World Cup winner spiked after last Saturday's All Black dismantling of the Baby Boks but that market is almost certain to change dramatically tomorrow.

"If the All Blacks win this test well they could get as short as $1.55 or $1.60 to win the World Cup.

"But if Australia win, everything will change and there will be an avalanche of money for them."

$1.25 All Black odds
$3.75 Wallaby odds
$1m expected to be taken by TAB on tonight's Bledisloe test