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Home / Sport / Rugby / Rugby World Cup

<i>Sean Fitzpatrick:</i> Over-confidence biggest obstacle to overdue World Cup triumph

28 Jul, 2007 05:00 PM4 mins to read

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KEY POINTS:

There are two main things for me coming out of the All Black squad selection last week - I think they will try to play Sione Lauaki off the bench as much as possible and that the All Blacks' biggest worry will be complacency.

It's my only worry,
really. I hope the loss against Australia in Melbourne happened at the right time and is a memory that lasts long enough for these All Blacks.

Certainly, as I said last week, that final Bledisloe Cup test against the Wallabies was good and a fitting result for three years of hard work. But - and I think it's a big but - you just have to look at the All Blacks' history in World Cups.

It is clear we have done best when we were under a bit of pressure and we did worst when we thought we were the best team at the World Cup.

Look at 1987. We were a good side but we'd had a pretty bad 1986 and we were worried about the Australians going into the World Cup because we felt they might be better than us.

In 1995, we also didn't have an attitude that we were the best team there and made it to the final, where we were within that famous whisker of taking it.

But in 1991, 1999 and 2003, I'd say there was a problem with over-confidence and we all know what happened in those years.

Going back to selection, I was a little surprised by Piri Weepu's omission but I'd have to say that, if you look over the team as a whole and the preparation by these coaches in the past three years, they have pretty much ticked all the boxes and there is little to quibble about.

Look at Brendon Leonard, who has taken Weepu's place as No 2 halfback. The coaches said they wanted more speed there and he has definitely injected that.

I'd also have to say - as I have in the past - that Graham Henry is a ruthless coach and selector and if, for any reason, you are not providing what he is asking for, the door is opened wide and you are advised to exit through it.

So I was pretty happy with the selection and form shown by the All Blacks in that final test.

I thought Lauaki was a good selection and that they will play him off the bench instead of Chris Masoe - with Rodney So'oialo going to No 7 if anything should happen to Richie McCaw. Previously, we have assumed Masoe would cover all three loose forward positions from the bench but I reckon that they want to use Lauaki strategically.

They have to. He gives them a whole new option at 8 or even 6, in terms of getting over the advantage line or carrying the ball and puncturing good defences.

You need that at the World Cup - we just can't rely on having cover. You need more than that and Graham has always said this is a 22-man game these days. He's right.

Overall, I guess it is possible to query some selections on form - Weepu wasn't the only one not quite there - but I find it difficult to argue with the coaches' assessments right now because, as I say, I think they have consistently got it right.

Maybe Weepu suffered from being in the protected 22 and perhaps he would have been one of those better off playing all the time. Sometimes it's harder to play badly if you're in the groove and easier to be exposed if you haven't had much game time.

Conrad Smith, however, has a slightly different problem - he's been selected with virtually no game time and now has to play himself into form.

But I'd rather have that than any form of over-confidence.

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