The All Blacks will crash at this year's World Cup because they are in the pool of death - that's what Wallaby great George Gregan might be saying.
A pool of death is traditionally seen as a grouping so strong that a very good team will have tomiss the knockout stage. But in rugby it is a weak pool that can spell trouble because it leaves the best of teams under-prepared for the tough road ahead.
Gregan was trying to talk up Australia's chances this week saying he liked their pool - the Wallabies play England and Wales on successive weekends. The All Blacks won't face any of rugby's traditional heavyweights in their group.
In contrast, Steve Hansen's side will crush Namibia and Georgia and have never lost to their other opponents - Argentina and Tonga. There are a lot of ways to look at this issue, but here are a few points to make All Black fans nervous.
1) The last two finals have been played by teams out of the same group - England v South Africa and New Zealand v France. While England and France didn't win those finals, their progress still lends added weight to the Gregan theory that at least one tough pool game is vital. England made the final with a weak lineup in 2007 and France played the 2011 Eden Park showdown despite team turmoil.
France face the haka before the 2011 Rugby World Cup final.
2) New Zealand's infamous Cardiff quarterfinal collapse against France in 2007 came after they had played a series of weak pool opponents - Italy, Portugal, Romania and Scotland. This was made worse by Scotland fielding a second string lineup in the final pool game.
Joe Rokocoko hangs his head after defeat to France in 2007.
3) The All Blacks are not hiding their concerns about a weak pool. One of the reasons for playing a test in Apia this year is to face extra adversity in preparation for the erratic quality of World Cup opponents. But this historic game will be played a long way out from the real thing, and top All Blacks will likely be missing because it clashes with the Super Rugby final.
Rugby World Cup pools and rankings
Pool A England (4) Wales (5) Australia (6) Fiji (12) Uruguay (20) Ave ranking - 9.4
Pool B South Africa (2) Samoa (9) Scotland (10) Japan (11) USA (16) Ave ranking - 9.6
Pool C New Zealand (1) Argentina (8) Tonga (13) Georgia (14) Namibia (23) Ave ranking - 11.8
Pool D Ireland (3) France (7) Italy (15) Canada (17) Romania (18) Ave ranking - 12
