KEY POINTS:
Expect A top-class performance from the All Blacks in Cardiff on Sunday morning, and a winning one.
This test will be won up front, and I'm far from convinced France have the firepower to match it against the All Blacks, who have been primed to hit their stride for the critical stage of the World Cup. I have severe reservations about the French front row, in particular hooker and captain Raphael Ibanez and loosehead Pieter de Villiers. They are up against the best front three in the game and will struggle.
The French selection is an intriguing one. Picking Lionel Beauxis at first five-eighth and Damien Traille at fullback, a position he's hardly played, tells me Bernard Laporte is planning a kicking game. He's opted for big men, both in the starting XV and on the bench, which suggests a conservative approach but that's not one which will overly concern the All Blacks.
Expect to see Sebastien Chabal off the bench to add bruising running in the second half and probably Imanol Harinordoquy as well, although I've yet to see him play a decent game despite being well regarded in France.
Traille is a cart horse and will struggle to cover sufficient ground if the All Blacks get the ball wide, as I expect they'll try to do. But Traille is clearly a Laporte favourite.
The first choice fullback thus far, Clement Poitrenaud, has done little wrong and is unlucky. This smacks of Laporte having to find a position for someone whose game he likes.
I'm picking France will have a crack at the All Black lineouts and will look to attack at the rucks and mauls. That may be a factor in Keith Robinson's selection ahead of Chris Jack. Choosing Robinson - on the strength of one game against Romania after his long injury layoff - is a big punt, but I suspect there are two reasons for Graham Henry wanting the Waikato man there.
He complements Ali Williams, who likes to get out wide and range round the park, in that Robinson won't do that. He is a simple, old fashioned lock - he hits rucks, leaps in lineouts, is strong at the restarts and does the grunt work.
You can argue Robinson does not do a lot round the park, but what he does, he does extremely well.
The selection is tough on Jack, as it is on Doug Howlett, who might now miss out on the chance to reach a half century of test tries.
Henry and his selectors have clearly decided they can pose the greatest threat to the French defence by having Joe Rokocoko and Sitiveni Sivivatu as his wings.
Luke McAlister now has the edge on Aaron Mauger at second five-eighth. Mauger lost headway during the Tri-Nations and has been unable to get his nose back in front. There's a sound argument to be made that Mauger is a safer pair of hands than McAlister, who is capable of brilliance but also of the odd hairy moment. My pick is the selectors have decided, with Dan Carter and Mils Muliaina either side of McAlister, they'll be okay.
Smarter backline brains than me reckon centre is the hardest defensive role to master in the backline. I know Grant Fox for one has long argued Muliaina should be at centre. With Leon MacDonald in good form at fullback, this works well for Henry, who I noticed called this his toughest test selection. I can understand why.
Let's look at the test through French eyes. How can Laporte fashion a victory? Four things:
* The All Blacks will need to have an off day.
* France must get all the 50-50 calls to go their way.
* They will have to dominate the set pieces, which I don't think they can.
* They'll need moments of real individual class.
In short, Laporte will need everything going for him.
My pick? France will be lucky to come second.
