KEY POINTS:
A glance at the All Blacks side to play Scotland points clearly to the selection panel deciding it's time to get down to serious business.
Graham Henry talked of it as being about 75 per cent their favoured first-choice selection and I see where he's coming from.
Injuries
have hindered their options to a degree, for example at fullback where Mils Muliaina's hamstring tear gives Leon MacDonald an unimpeded run for a third straight game at No 15.
MacDonald is playing well, but Muliaina will be welcomed back when he is fit again.
Reuben Thorne is in at lock for two reasons - he's been chosen as lock cover and so should get a run there at some point; but also he enables the selectors to give one of their senior pair, Chris Jack or Ali Williams, a break. There is no one else.
As it happens, Jack is on the bench, but time and patience must be running out with Keith Robinson.
When Henry says that had he been making the medical call, Robinson would have been back in the Waikato by now, I know what he means.
He has a ruthless streak and will be getting fidgety about the situation. I appreciate Robinson is an unusual case in that he seems to need little practice time to hit good form. Mentally he is also tough enough to withstand the doubts that would plague a less assertive person.
But I really wonder if a replacement needs to be put on a plane now, if only as cover.
Get the player to Europe so if a hard call has to be made he will be a day or two ahead of the situation and will have had a bit of time to get over the travel lag.
Richie McCaw and Henry have talked about getting towards the business end of the World Cup. Having a fit specialist backup lock will be vital in the next four weeks.
Does anyone really have any idea when Robinson will be ready and how susceptible he may be to another injury setback?
He is a hard man but even he must deep down be wondering about the ifs and whens of his situation.
I am surprised to see Chris Masoe at blindside flanker, given that Sione Lauaki is on the bench and must have more game time. It may be the selectors are hoping to run Masoe into some form, which has rarely been seen in the past 18 months.
With Jack in the reserves, Lauaki is there only to cover the loose forwards. He needs more matchplay so should get at least 20 minutes on Monday morning.
As for Anton Oliver heading off Keven Mealamu, I know Henry has spoken of Mealamu simply having a rest, but I wonder if the Otago man got the nod on greater bulk.
Then again, Romania are next and their forwards are hardly in the small, meek category, so perhaps it's just Henry's rotation policy still working.
Might Doug Howlett have overtaken Joe Rokocoko ... and does that mean Rokocoko is a victim of the early-season rest and recreation policy? Howlett's form demands a place; Rokocoko is another who badly needs game time. Perhaps that time has run out.
The back reserve bench looks pretty much the best available but the forward backups - Jack aside - seem less threatening to the front runners.
And what of Scotland?
They appear a sound team, probably fitter and stronger than before. You can bet on them having heaps of passion and some skill - for a while.
But against this All Black side they will be pressured into errors.
I expect their set pieces to be competitive but doubt they will have the required accuracy at the breakdown or the finesse in the backs.
What a big weekend coming up.
England continue to thrill everyone - except their long-suffering supporters. Seven changes for the Samoan game tomorrow night is another sign of what a shambles they have become.
The loss to Tonga will hopefully provide a spur to the Samoans. I hope their game plan is a mix of sound set piece, aggressive defence allied to a bit of risk out wide.
If they get stuck in trench warfare, England will be happy. If it's a mix of physical confrontation and speed, the English could struggle. Samoa are a real chance to continue England's sharp downward spiral.
As for the Tongans, I am sure this will be a brutal clash, and I suspect bad-tempered, particularly if Tonga don't buy into South Africa's idea of who should win.
But the most critical game of the Cup so far takes place in Paris tomorrow morning when France face Ireland. Ireland are way off the class of 2004-05. France are rebuilding after their opening-night disaster against Argentina.
Frankly, the tournament needs France to win, but I seriously wonder if coach Bernard Laporte has sanitised their passion to such an extent that even an Ireland in decline can pinch the win.
