KEY POINTS:
I would rather play France in the quarter-final at Cardiff than have to face them at a later stage.
The form of the French has been hard to gauge. They had two wins over lightweights Namibia and Georgia, gave Ireland a decent beating and tripped up in their opening match against Argentina. But Ireland, as we saw with their demise against the South Americans yesterday, have been pretty hopeless.
My suspicion is the French are improving, gaining some confidence through three successive wins, and piling on some points.
On television yesterday, French coach Bernard Laporte was asked what he thought about the prospect of facing the All Blacks for a semifinal place in Cardiff. Laporte said he wasn't preparing to play the All Blacks. Instead France are playing "New Zealand".
This is an old ploy various opposing coaches have tried, notably Sir Clive Woodward and Eddie Jones.
French rugby fans won't buy that. They admire and respect the All Blacks. Next to their own, they are the team many will want to win the cup. I also believe the French are one of those teams who lift themselves if they can secure the underdog status. If they convince themselves they're up against it, they can find extra self belief. The All Blacks, despite their fine record against them in recent seasons, will be wise to be wary.
I found the All Black game against Romania intriguing in one or two respects. Obviously it was an easy win, but a smart coach of a stronger team will have watched and observed bits and pieces which they might use to their advantage.
Romania were pleased with the success they had at ruck and maul. And rightly so. They noticed the All Blacks failed to commit many forwards to the breakdown. Romania weren't good enough to really hurt the All Blacks, but South Africa, France, Argentina or Australia will.
South Africa have the dream run to the final, and that's without intending disrespect to Fiji and either Argentina or Scotland.
The tournament has worked out extremely well for the Springboks. They have had a couple of tough games in their pool, plus they belted England 36-0. Samoa gave them a decent challenge for much of a game which blew out to a 50-point beating in the final quarter but Tonga pushed them all the way.
The South Africans will be all the better for that and will be extremely confident.
England against Australia in Marseille is potentially an upset. The English have been pretty average, although they went up a notch against Tonga in the final pool game they had to win. They will think they have a chance. They do, but I'd expect them to be rolled out by an Australian side I'd consider dangerous.
Argentina have impressed me - strong men and pretty smart footballers. They lack real pace, which I suspect will ultimately cost them but they deserve to be in the quarter-finals and I expect them to get past Scotland, who look pretty ordinary and make their first semifinal.
