If speculation counts, it's South Africa or Japan

All the strategies, all the selling points will wither when the IRB delegates enter an unremarkable building near the centre of Dublin tomorrow to vote on who will host the 2011 World Cup.

While much has been made of the merits and drawbacks associated with the contenders - Japan, New Zealand and South Africa - there has been scant public information from the International Rugby Board about the direction they want to take the seventh global tournament.

A leaked report apparently favours South Africa because of strong forecasts about its commercial revenue, but New Zealand remains a safe option with Government backing and rugby history.

Choosing Japan is seen as valuable for the expansion of the sport but risky because of the mediocre national side and uncertainty about the public following.

The report was most critical of Japan, a sign that reinforced for many the belief that the IRB was still an old boys' network which operated more with a wink and clink of glasses than transparent research. When the three nations presented their bids in person this year, there was another report doing the rounds that the Japanese delegation were made to wait some time before the IRB would see them.

There were also suggestions that the delay was accompanied by mutterings about the war.

Apocryphal or not, those murmurs underline the impression that the IRB is still an exclusive club, offering ridiculously minimal scrutiny for an organisation that controls the global game.

There has been no public unveiling of any guidelines the IRB wants for the 2011 World Cup, just blurred, broadbrush strokes about strategy.

Some restructuring has occurred and remarkably, the IRB travelled to New Zealand this season to coincide with the Lions tour. Some committees and voting have also been altered.

But the bulk of the power remains with eight countries - New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, England, Wales, Scotland, Ireland and France - who have two votes each at the council table.

Canada, Italy, Japan, Argentina, Fira (Europe), Car (Africa), Foru (Oceania) and Arfu (Asia) have one each, while other individual nations do not get a separate vote.

The three World Cup candidates are not allowed to be involved in the first secret ballot tomorrow but the country eliminated after the first round can vote in the second, where a simple majority will decide the winning bid.

Success will depend on finding favour with the main nations.

The World Cup decision will have a great deal to do with self-interest, back-scratching and back-biting, and less to do with other issues.

Speculation has increased that the Six Nations want South Africa to spice up the interest in that series and that something could be achieved once South Africa's involvement in the Super 14 and expanded Tri-Nations ends in 2010.

As a tradeoff, South Africa would need the Northern Hemisphere to endorse it as host of the 2011 World Cup.

Another theory has delegates overlooking New Zealand because of jealousy about the All Blacks' triumphs and worries about the advantage they would have from hosting a tournament.

The contrary viewpoint gives New Zealand a real chance because they have eased their demands about gate-sharing in the Northern Hemisphere while acceding to "extra" games this trip against Wales, next year against England and, apparently, Argentina.

It is felt those games have been made with an inherent condition about World Cup voting, while New Zealand's affinity with France has improved in recent seasons.

Politics and money seem inextricably linked to the outcome tomorrow.

Japan will lead off the one-hour presentations from each nation at the IRB headquarters near St Stephen's Green in Dublin.

If there are any wavering delegates before the morning tenders, New Zealand's greatest weapon should be Colin Meads, whose status might make the difference.

The tenders done, the meeting will break for lunch and then hold a council meeting before they start the World Cup vote.

An independent auditor will scrutinise the vote, reveal the first-round loser and then oversee the next ballot. He will not declare the winner.

New Zealand has refused to say which nation it will support if cut at the first ballot.

Once the 2011 host is elected, IRB chairman Syd Millar and officials will travel 5km to Booterstown and the Radisson SAS Hotel, where they will address the media.

The Webb Ellis Trophy won by England in 2003 will then be handed back to the IRB in a special ceremony before Millar announces the successful 2011 host.