The IRB don't have a great track record of giving the player of the year award to the right man. Some years it has been a decidedly straightforward business - such an obvious decision to make because one man has stood out.
Dan Carter in 2005 was one of those years. How could anyone else have seriously been better than Carter that year? Richie McCaw the following year and again in 2010 was a no-brainer - he was in a different stratosphere to everyone else.
But in 2009 McCaw won the award when it felt like it should have been Brian O'Driscoll's year and while this won't be popular in Wales, as good as he was and as heart-warming as it is to see a player so reliant on speed and guile to thrive in the test arena, Shane Williams was perhaps fortunate to win ahead of Carter.
This year the nominations are: Will Genia, David Pocock, Thierry Dusautoir, Ma'a Nonu, Piri Weepu and Jerome Kaino. That's going to be tough. Is there an obvious stand out from those six?
Well, there probably is... Genia. Just ahead of Kaino, Nonu, Pocock, Dusautoir and Weepu in that order.