KEY POINTS:
There's a caf around the corner from my Marseille hotel where a few of us have started to gather to watch the World Cup.
It's not the sort of place that is going to win any awards or feature in any society magazines but we've grown to like it.
The owner/ manager is a curious bloke. He has one good eye but the right one is a bit disconcerting. It has no iris or pupil, just a scarred off-white mess.
Still, he is not slow in coming forward with free saucers of olives and cheeses and he plays the rugby on his telly without complaint so, despite the fact we appear to be the only people in the place that are not of North African extraction, we keep going back.
It was in this caf today, over a couple of espressos and the odd Stella, that I came to the conclusion that a European team is not going to win this World Cup.
Wales were outplayed for 50 minutes by Canada and Scotland looked ordinary against supposed whipping boys Portugal.
In between, South Africa easily accounted for Samoa in a match that contained twice as much skill as the other two.
It's hard to pinpoint why European rugby seems to have dipped so much after England's triumph four years ago. Perhaps the other Six Nations' sides believed England had set the template for further dominance and tried to copy, while the other side of the world instead set about advancing rugby.
It might be an early call, but one of the Tri Nations' teams will win this cup.
