All Blacks captain Sam Cane speaks to the media about his actions and the aftermath of tripping a pitch invader during a match against Argentina this past weekend.
OPINION:
Presumably the All Blacks coaching team decided some time ago who they will be putting into their team to play the Springboks this Saturday, but will only now just be getting into the more serious business of deciding what to leave out of their battle plan.
There is alot for the New Zealand side to consider about this week, most notably whether they can achieve their goal of winning the game which will set them up to win the Rugby Championship, without necessarily giving South Africa a full view of what weaponry is in the arsenal.
This is how it needs to be because there is a high probability the All Blacks will meet the Springboks in the World Cup quarter-finals.
This coming tournament has been set up in the most lop-sided manner ever seen, with the top five teams in the world all placed in the same half of the draw.
Ireland, South Africa and Scotland are all in one pool, and whichever two progress, will face either France or New Zealand depending on who finishes one and two.
Whether it is certifiably stupid or a quite brilliant quirk of fate, the tournament is going to see one of the best sides fail to go beyond their pool and two more bundled out in the quarter-finals.
It’s a uniquely tense and dramatic way of doing things because whichever two teams survive this ordeal and make it to the last four will have a strong sense that they are going to go on to win.
The All Blacks know as well as everyone else that World Cups rarely go to form and have a habit of springing surprises, but for now, they have to believe that South Africa are their most likely quarter-final opponent.
That’s based entirely on the current rankings, which have Ireland at one, France at two, New Zealand three and South Africa four.
And so the test at Mt Smart Stadium is an opportunity for the All Blacks to firstly road-test their new-found physical approach and see how it holds up against the most brutal team on the planet.
They have been here before of course, believing after a solid rout of Argentina that they are all shipshape and tickety-boo, only to be crushed by the relentless power of the Boks, who are always in a different league when it comes to collisions and set-piece.
But more importantly perhaps, it’s an opportunity to plant a few false flags and leave the Springboks with the wrong impression of how the All Blacks might play them, should they meet at the World Cup.
All Blacks coach Ian Foster. Photo / Photosport
Given the All Blacks want to win and they want to embed combinations and get a flow on with so little time now before the tournament starts, they won’t want to get too cute with their selections and strategies.
Yet nor would they be well-advised to show too much against the Boks - who they will meet again next month at Twickenham for one last pre-tournament encounter - for fear of giving them an opportunity to prepare for what may be coming.
This is obviously a tough line to tread - a true test of the coaching panel’s long-term strategic thinking and ability to follow one of General Sun Tzu’s core principles of making an opponent think you are weak where you are strong.
The most effective way for the All Blacks to keep their World Cup intentions under wraps would be to pull off some trickery with their selections - pick Josh Lord and Tupou Vai’i at lock, hand Cam Roigard a test debut at halfback, shift Beauden Barrett to No 10 and bring in Will Jordan at fullback.
But that would potentially be counter-productive as the All Blacks don’t have enough time for experiments of that nature, and besides, they will be eager to get Samisoni Taukei’aho, Brodie Retallick, Richie Mo’unga and Jordan (if he’s fit) back into action, having not played in Argentina.
Where the real opportunity to bluff and double bluff lies is in the way the All Blacks deal with South Africa’s kicking game and how they administer their own.
The Boks don’t do surprises and they will kick plenty of possession on Saturday night, as they inevitably will should the two teams meet at the World Cup.
So many games against South Africa come down to how well teams can deal with the aerial bombardment, and the big decision facing the All Blacks this Saturday is how much possession do they kick back and how much should they try to counter-attack?
That’s the balance they have to get right on Saturday and yet somehow leave the Boks guessing if it’s likely to be the way they will also play at the World Cup.
