This time last year All Blacks coach Ian Foster was supposedly getting just about everything wrong.
Now, he’s just about getting everything right, and his turbulent journey from the brink of being fired in August 2022 to where he sits now is proof that adversity is the greatest teacherin sport.
The Foster that calmly and articulately explained the reasoning behind his All Blacks selections for this weekend’s clash with the Springboks was barely recognisable to the hunched, guarded, frosty figure that tried to do the same thing a year ago in Johannesburg the last time the two sides met.
A year ago, he picked an All Blacks team that many, including himself, imagined would be the last he ever would as head coach.
The axe wasn’t so much hovering over his head as having sliced a good way through his neck as his employer had already sounded out, in a not so hypothetical context, Scott Robertson to take over.
That the All Blacks won at Ellis Park still feels a little more to do with good luck than good management, but it was a victory that changed the course of history and indeed the individual fate of Foster.
Where it once felt like he was second guessing himself in his selections, he’s picked a team to play the Boks at Mt Smart Stadium that suggests there is only method now and no madness.
This is Fozzie 2.0 – calm, assured, confident in where he wants his team to go and how to get there – and the only pity is that his employer hasn’t been patient enough or brave enough to hang around to see what the new version can achieve.
New Zealand Rugby didn’t have faith in the software upgrade as it were and effectively went out and bought itself a whole new set of hardware by appointing Robertson to take over next year as All Blacks coach.
But as the IT experts know, nearly all problems can be fixed by turning the machine off at the wall and leaving it for a bit, which is kind of what’s happened with Foster.
There has been a system reboot and Foster has new and greater operational capacity, and there is now reason to believe that he has a firm handle on what his best side looks like, albeit there may be some finalising to do at wing and the make-up of the bench.
The team to play the Boks is certainly close to the team, barring injury, that will likely open the World Cup against France in Paris.
The only differences we may see come September are Fletcher Newell, Sam Whitelock and Damain McKenzie coming on to the bench, and it may be that a decision has not yet been made on whether Leicester Fainga’anuku, Emoni Narawa, Mark Telea or Caleb Clarke is the best choice to start on the left wing.
But that’s likely it, and the non-appearance of Whitelock in the match-day 23 shouldn’t be misread.
He’s being held back to give him two more weeks certainty that his Achilles is ready to endure a World Cup, but if he is to force his way into the starting team once he returns, it will most likely have to be at the expense of Brodie Retallick as Scott Barrett has made himself indispensable.
And while there has been endless criticism that Foster hasn’t known his own mind, there are a number of embedded and partly mature combinations in the team that serve as a reminder the last few years haven’t been entirely wild and wasted.
Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax have been the starting props since this time last year, and Jordie Barrett and Rieko Ioane may not have had many games together in the midfield, but theirs is a partnership that appears to be growing at an exponential rate.
The selection for this test is very much all about good management rather than good luck, and maybe that’s why, when he was reminded that there was a fair bit going on this time last year, Foster replied: “Was there..? Yeah apparently. In this business things change all the time.
“We think we have taken some steps and we think we have in place, not only for the present but for the next six months where we feel good about it.
“We believe the guys are working really hard. I know we are just at the start of our campaign and every day we are treasuring because it’s a chance to spend time together and get our game sorted.
“I think the team is in a great spot but we have to keep proving that, which is one of the key lessons we learned from last year – we can’t knock off. We know we still have a lot of growth in us and we have got to keep striving for that.”
All Blacks v Springboks
Saturday, 7.05pm, Mt Smart Stadium
All Blacks: Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett, Mark Telea, Richie Mo’unga, Aaron Smith, Ardie Savea, Sam Cane (c), Shannon Frizell, Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Tyrel Lomax, Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot.
South Africa: Willie le Roux, Cheslin Kolbe, Lukhanyo Am, Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi, Damian Willemse, Faf de Klerk, Jasper Wiese, Franco Mostert, Kwagga Smith, Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth (c), Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Steven Kitshoff.
Reserves: Malcolm Marx, Thomas du Toit, Vincent Koch, RG Snyman, Pieter Steph du Toit, Duane Vermeulen, Grant Williams, Manie Libbok.
Live commentary of All Blacks v South Africa at Mount Smart Stadium on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio; coverage from 6pm, Saturday 15 July.