History teaches us lessons. Traversing the highs, the lows, the warts-and-all ugly shapes the present, and the future. How much relevance past deeds hold for the All Blacks and Ireland in their World Cup quarter-final, though, is open to interpretation.
Ireland’s historical context is somewhat conflicting and, therefore, a prime example.
In the past two years Ireland have consistently set the benchmark as the world’s leading rugby nation en route to their 17-test unbeaten surge.
With four wins from their past six tests against the All Blacks — three from four since the last World Cup — Ireland deserve their status as World Cup favourites.
Ireland, effectively, stole the mantle the All Blacks once held with an ironclad grip. That leaves the underdog All Blacks in the unfamiliar role of playing catch-up.
“They’ve earned that right. Their record in the last two years has proven that, but we’re at a World Cup,” All Blacks halfback Aaron Smith said. “We’re playing in a final and it’s all on the line. History is history. History is going to get created on Saturday and we’ll see who comes out on top.”
While Ireland inflicted regular lingering scars on the All Blacks, the other shade to their past — the part that evokes trepidation in the Emerald Isle — is their failure to progress beyond the World Cup quarter-finals.
Ireland’s evolution under Andy Farrell strongly suggests this Irish team is a different beast, one dotted with vast experience, composure and freed from the burden of history.
No one can be sure, though. Not yet, anyway.
“I know in 2019 there was quite good camaraderie after with everyone connecting. I wouldn’t call it a hatred or anything like that,” Smith said of the All Blacks’ relationship with Ireland, four years on from their quarter-final victory in Yokohama. “We’re two proud nations, but there’s happiness and pain for how the result goes.”
The context of history is more recent for the All Blacks.
Senior All Blacks Dane Coles and Beauden Barrett spoke earlier in the week of their hurt from the losses in the second and third tests in Wellington and Dunedin last July.
The quest for revenge was posed to Smith and Rieko Ioane after the All Blacks trained in summer temperatures on the outskirts of Paris — only for that notion to be dismissed.
“There’s always going to be the hurt, but this game on Saturday isn’t going to be about the emotion of last year,” Ioane said. “It’s about what we’ve built so far in this tournament. Last year doesn’t matter when it comes to finals footy.”
Some 13 months on, the relevance of that series is, indeed, debatable. The team the All Blacks field this weekend could feature eight starting changes from the last time they played Ireland.
From an Irish perspective, winning on New Zealand soil for the first time instilled belief and confidence. Achieving history confirmed the path they were on and provided a definitive springboard to the pinnacle prize.
While the home series defeat rocked New Zealand and the All Blacks, it also sparked widespread, overdue changes that have since significantly strengthened the team.
As someone who relies on a go-forward platform to assert his influence, Smith is better placed than most to assess those changes.
“Last year matters in the sense of taking the lessons, but I believe we’re a totally different team to July last year,” Smith said. “We’ve got new coaches. As a group that series really galvanised us. I can’t wait for Saturday.”
Without that series defeat the All Blacks would not — yet at least — have Jason Ryan marshalling their forwards. Joe Schmidt’s nous would not be ensconced in camp, either.
Theform pendulum has swung too many times to be sure where the All Blacks stand on the eve of this side’s defining juncture.
Ryan, though, has undoubtedly transformed their pack from the one that conceded multiple lineout drives each game and couldn’t match Ireland’s ruthless carry and clean accuracy.
Ryan and scrum coach Greg Feek have reformed the set piece, too, and alongside Schmidt vastly improved the All Blacks’ work at the breakdown — the area where Ireland pose the greatest threat.
“We’ve had some good growth in our lineout on both sides of the ball,” Ryan said as he reflected on his forward pack’s development since last year.
“The training quality and fixing things on the run has been quite a step up for the boys and not avoiding any hard conversations that need to be had. That’s a big one for us.
“The players have been tremendous and responded. We’re where we need to be so we’re happy with that progress and how that’s come along.
“Finals footy is always going to bring a challenge, but what better way than playing the No 1 team in the world.”
History can weigh you down. It can cripple or inspire. The past can drive meaningful change. And it can be irrelevant.