In July last year, when Ireland were tormenting the All Blacks with their wonderfully structured and robust rugby, it felt like stubbornness and a refusal to accept what was plain for everyone else to see was going to be the undoing of head coach IanFoster.
There were Ireland, so cohesive and certain about what they were doing, playing this simple but elegant rugby that was built on a foundation of raw power, technical excellence, immaculate discipline, mobile athletes, and a unity of purpose.
The All Blacks, in contrast, were a bit of a rabble. The fundamentals of their game were patchy: they leaked soft tries to Ireland’s driving maul, their attack flourished in the first test but disappeared in the next two and they picked up three cards in one half in Dunedin.
They were everything Ireland weren’t and everyone in New Zealand could see that there needed to be a massive reset.
Ireland were playing a type of rugby that everyone in New Zealand wanted the All Blacks to be playing. To get there, there would need to be changes in coaching personnel, selection, and a total rethink about what modern rugby was actually all about.
But it didn’t feel that head coach Ian Foster was seeing the same things as everyone else and seemed that he was perhaps overly committed to people and plans he shouldn’t have been.
There were two assistant coaches hanging on to their jobs after reviewing poorly with the players in 2020 and 2021. But John Plumtree and Brad Mooar survived into 2022 as Foster, due to a sense of loyalty and concern that change would be more disruptive than beneficial, persuaded the New Zealand Rugby board he could upskill them and get them to the level they needed to be at.
It was admirable, but it was a poor decision and everyone could see that the two assistants had to be moved on.
So, too, could everyone see that the All Blacks had the wrong players in their front row.
Super Rugby had thrown up a few young gems in Ethan de Groot, Tamaiti Williams and Fletcher Newell, but none of them were picked to play Ireland.
It seemed mad for the All Blacks to face a team full of mobile, rugged, all-court props with their own contingent of relatively immobile, limited front-rowers, none of whom had the same range of attributes as their Irish counterparts.
Kiwis were screaming for the next generation to be given their chance – but there was a reluctance, almost a stubbornness, on the part of Foster to not go there and he was sticking with the likes of Angus Ta’avao, Karl Tu’inukuafe, Nepo Laulala and his nod to the future came by picking Aidan Ross.
There was also unanimity among the rugby fraternity that the likes of Akira Ioane, Hoskins Sotutu and Pita Gus Sowakula didn’t have the graft or the seek-and-destroy mindset to play with the destructive power that the likes of Peter O’Mahony, Caelan Doris and Josh van der Flier were delivering for the Irish.
Everyone also said Jordie Barrett needed to be shifted to No 12 to bring the midfield the physical presence and ball-playing smarts it was missing, and that if the All Blacks wanted their attack to develop, they had to commit to picking Richie Mo’unga as their playmaker.
It is 15 months since that series defeat to Ireland and just about everything everyone said needed to change has changed and the difference in the All Blacks now compared with their first test of 2022 is staggering.
Plumtree and Mooar have gone, and there are nine changes in the All Blacks quarter-final line-up from the team that played the opening test against Ireland last year, while all three Barrett brothers are in different positions – the right ones - and Mo’unga is starting at 10 instead of coming off the bench.
The young, dynamic props everyone wanted to see are all in the 23; in Tyrel Lomax the All Blacks have found the mobile yet set-piece efficient tight-head they have been searching for, while Shannon Frizell has emerged as the answer at No 6 – another problem that was looking almost unsolvable in July last year.
The hallmark of a good coach is the ability to adapt, to admit when things aren’t working, and be brave enough to make changes.
The narrative around Foster seems to have been stuck on this idea that he’s a rigid thinker, operating with a closed mindset rather than an open one. But his All Blacks have experienced what is effectively a revolution since July last year and they bear virtually no resemblance to the team they were.
It seems he had the same vision as everyone else all along, and was just as sure that he would need to inject his ball-playing props, shift Jordie to 12 and commit to giving his best playmaker the No 10 jersey.
The coaching setup has changed, the players have changed, the gameplan has changed and, maybe bar the selection of Finlay Christie on the bench ahead of Cam Roigard, there’s an alignment now between the type of rugby the All Blacks want to play and the players they have picked to do it.
There is also a sense that the All Blacks have picked a younger, more dynamic team that can match Ireland for physicality, mobility and athleticism, and stick it out in the collision warfare trench.
It’s a team that looks equipped to play modern rugby and that has addressed every failing that was exposed last July.
Foster has seen, learned and adapted, and whether the All Blacks make it through their quarter-final or not, there is the comfort of knowing they headed in there with a team that made sense and looked just about how everybody wanted it to look.