All Blacks: the last cut is the deepest

All Blacks winger Hosea Gear is likely to be one of the biggest casualties when the World Cup squad is announced. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Some All Blacks aspiring to play in next month's World Cup have come up short and will be notably absent when the squad is revealed tomorrow.

Hosea Gear, Liam Messam, Wyatt Crockett and Zac Guildford appear to be the biggest casualties in the 30-man All Blacks squad, with Sitiveni Sivivatu, Victor Vito and John Afoa tipped to make the final cut.

The back three was always going to be one of the most contentious areas with a wealth of resources and two of Israel Dagg, Cory Jane, Sivivatu, Gear and Guildford were due to be jettisoned.

Dagg was excellent in his comeback from injury against South Africa on Sunday morning and will provide backup to Mils Muliaina, while Jane has proven to be a big-game player. Gear provided speed, explosiveness and surety under the high ball but the selectors are expected to go for the experienced Sivivatu, who was in good form earlier in the Tri Nations.

The squad will be announced to the public tomorrow in Brisbane at 2pm but the players already know. The Three Wise Men made their final decisions on Sunday after the Port Elizabeth test and informed the unlucky ones personally. Henry also called those in New Zealand who missed the cut.

The entire World Cup squad will meet in Brisbane - the unlucky ones headed home - and Jane tweeted on Monday that he was on his way to Brisbane. But the Wellington wing is a self-confessed joker (he says on his Twitter page "I like to joke around and have fun") so while it's dangerous to assume anything with Jane, the smart money is on him making the World Cup squad.

Messam has always struggled to establish himself in the All Blacks and, while he did nothing wrong against South Africa in Port Elizabeth, is more of a luxury than a genuine weapon. He lacks the size of other No 8s and it's hard to see where he fits in the All Blacks mix.

Vito was thought to be out of consideration as little as 10 days ago but his callup to travel to South Africa, as well as his bigger bulk, appear to have tipped things his way. His likely selection could be viewed as the most unexpected.

A bolter like Matt Todd or Luke Braid was a long-shot and Adam Thomson will retain the back-up No 7 duties. He was unconvincing in the role against the Springboks on Sunday morning, but Henry and Co weren't likely to include a newcomer at this late stage, which meant it was a straight choice between Messam and Vito for the fifth loose forward spot.

There was plenty of teeth gnashing from jittery fans around Colin Slade's nervy performance in Port Elizabeth, which prompted suggestions Aaron Cruden should be brought back into the fold, but the selectors aren't prone to panicking. They seemed to make their decision on Dan Carter's backup when they picked Slade for the Tri Nations despite his paucity of rugby this year and they will be mindful of the fact Cruden has also had his struggles when in a black jersey.

A decision will need to be made around Anthony Boric's fitness. The North Harbour lock hasn't been sighted since injuring his foot in June but is close to full fitness and will turn out for North Harbour on Friday. His form for the Blues and more particularly on last year's end-of-year tour should be enough to see him get the nod ahead of the abrasive Jarred Hoeata as one of the four locks.

The last area of debate was around the front row, especially after the All Blacks buckled in the scrums against the Springboks in the weekend, but Afoa and the fit-again Tony Woodcock are believed to have got the golden ticket ahead of Crockett.

Crockett is unlucky to miss out after an excellent season but Woodcock's experience is hard to ignore and Afoa's greater versatility - he can play both sides of the scrum - appears to have been the clincher.

It is a measure of New Zealand's place in world rugby that quality players will be left out and it should give fans confidence the All Blacks will, finally, win another World Cup. The defeat to the Springboks shouldn't cause too much alarm. It's hard to see the All Blacks play that poorly again, especially with some major firepower to come back in, and defeat will only sharpen the minds.

Not that they really need to after 24 years of pain.

Possible World Cup squad

Backs: Jimmy Cowan, Andy Ellis, Piri Weepu, Dan Carter, Colin Slade, Ma'a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Sonny Bill Williams, Richard Kahui, Isaia Toeava, Cory Jane, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Mils Muliaina, Israel Dagg.

Forwards: Corey Flynn, Andrew Hore, Keven Mealamu, John Afoa, Ben Franks, Owen Franks, Tony Woodcock, Anthony Boric, Brad Thorn, Sam Whitelock, Ali Williams, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Adam Thomson, Victor Vito.