All Black selections for the World Cup squad were made easier by the end-of-year tour. Gregor Paul looks at six certainties - barring injuries or abduction by aliens.
1 Kieran Read
It was an extraordinary year for Kieran Read. He started it under pressure to prove he was the right choice to be All Black No 8. He ended it probably the best in the world. South Africa's Pierre Spies was the man earning all the accolades during Super 14 when the ground was hard and the game fast. Read blew him away three times this year.
Read blew everyone away this year.
His key development was strength - he's obviously bigger and stronger than when he first made the All Blacks in 2008. That power and extra yard of pace allowed him to burst through tackles this year and claim six tries. Some of those scores were crucial; particularly the one in Sydney which brought the All Blacks back into the game.
That extra power also allowed him to explode from the base of the scrum, the best example being at Twickenham where he hammered over from short range, scoring a try few other No 8s would have managed. His work-rate was faultless,he did his bit at the lineout and Graham Henry, not one to use the term lightly, was adamant Read is now a world class No 8. Richie McCaw agreed and even went as far to say that Read is his natural successor as All Black captain.
2 Sam Whitelock
This time last year, not many people knew who Sam Whitelock was. In the space of 12 months he has played his way into being a first choice international. What the All Black coaches loved about Whitelock was his aggression and desire to get involved. There are plenty of young locks who have the athleticism and ball skills to play modern rugby, but not many can balance that with a physical edge - with a desire to hit bodies, jump in the lineout and take care of the core role. Whitelock ticked all the boxes with the Crusaders and then carried on when he was called up to the All Blacks.
He scored two tries on debut and never looked back. His biggest performance of the year was against England, where he faced up to one of the more physical packs in world rugby and more than held his own. His presence was strong at the collision. He tidied up the kick-offs and challenged the English ball at the lineout. It was exactly the performance the coaches wanted - dynamic, tough and fearless.
Henry's end-of-year assessment of the Crusaders lock was this: "Sam Whitelock has been outstanding. He had a great tour and he's progressed. He is a real contender now and he could be an outstanding lock forward." Such was his quality that he is now the preferred partner for Brad Thorn and even if Ali Williams makes a full recovery, he might not budge Whitelock.
3 Sonny Bill Williams
There was an argument that he secured his World Cup place the second he signed his contract to play in New Zealand. Not so. Williams had to earn his selection, which he did with polished and improving performances in the Canterbury midfield; combining sweetly with Robbie Fruean.
Even then, there was still some doubt as to whether he had the skills and rugby smarts to handle test football. It didn't take him long to prove he is an irresistible force. His offloading went to a new level against Scotland, where it became clear he is in possession of a skill that is almost impossible to defend against. He offers the All Blacks significant attacking options as they can charge him up the middle and then have runners coming off his shoulder - knowing the ball will come out of contact.
He is also a neat long passer and his understanding of the defensive structure improved as the tour developed. He's the sort of player coaches will find hard to resist picking each week because his offloading is so destructive.
But while he's a World Cup certainty, everyone would like to see him back himself more in Super 15. At 1.94m and 110kg, he has the size, power and pace to damage defences by running at them straight and hard. He seemed a little reluctant to try that in his test outings and it's a part of his game with room for improvement.
4 Hika Elliot
Once the enfant terrible of New Zealand rugby, Hika Elliot is now in from the cold. What his supposed crimes were, we don't fully know but the All Black coaches and players were at pains to stress the hooker is a reformed character. He's also a reformed player, performing consistently well for Hawke's Bay before enjoying an impressive beginning to his test career.
He was strong and accurate in his debut against Scotland and what impressed was his balance. Elliot is a natural ball-carrier and likes to get his hands on the pill and attack the space. He focused on his core role at Murrayfield, throwing well, scrimmaging strongly and making tackles. Yet he still showed a little of his flair, choosing to make a couple of good runs once he had felt his way into the contest.
He was assured and noticeable in Dublin, too, and a big part of his challenge on tour was to prove he could cope mentally and physically with the demands of international rugby.
It's almost certain the All Blacks will take three hookers to the World Cup, and with Corey Flynn and Aled de Malmanche having slipped this year, Elliot has taken a giant stride towards inclusion. "He has pleased us immensely," was Henry's verdict. "So if we go into the World Cup with three hookers, he's a distinct possibility."
5 John Afoa
When John Afoa missed the first All Black squad of the year, his future was far from bright. He'd been singled out by Henry on the 2009 end-of-season tour for being the best ball player among the front-rowers but the weakest scrummager. He was encouraged to play more at hooker after Super 14 to increase versatility.
It's an idea that remains on the table but his All Black recall for the Tri Nations came about because of the changed nature of the game and Neemia Tialata's inability to play it. With the ball in play longer and fewer scrums, Afoa stacked up as a better option. That became clear when Afoa made strong cameo appearances from the bench, which he continued to do all season. His best came in Cardiff when he rounded off a good six months with a storming try from 30 metres where he showed frightening pace for such a big man.
Afoa still has a question mark over his scrummaging but the selectors are no longer so concerned about that. They like the energy he brings off the bench and his carrying, tackling and decision-making. He is also able to scrimmage on both sides and, with 30 test caps, has the experience to prepare during the week knowing his time will come in the final quarter.
It takes patience and understanding for players to accept and understand the impact they can have from the bench. "He is the ideal sub because he's a bloody good athlete and gives you another dimension," says Henry of Afoa.
6 Hosea Gear
The Hurricanes wing has Graham Henry's mum to thank for his end-of-year selection.
Gear was the people's favourite for much of the year and his non-selection was a mystery. "Even my mother asked me why he wasn't in the All Blacks," revealed Henry while on tour. "I go to see the New Zealand Maori play the English at Hawke's Bay and all I can hear is 'Hosea, Hosea, Hosea' from the stands, so I have bent to the pressure. My mum is more important than the rest of them but my wife said I should pick him as well so it was a foregone conclusion."
Henry's reluctance stemmed from the belief Gear was not working hard enough on defence and wasn't always in tune with his other wing and fullback. His running, particularly counter-attacking, was never in doubt, nor his ability to finish - but the All Blacks needed more.
They absolutely got it from Gear on the tour where he played all four Grand Slam games. His ability to stay on his feet and drive forward when brought off his wing was crucial. So, too, was his finishing where he showed he was among the best in the world to squeeze in at the corner against England. He was hungry for work, tackled well and covered strongly. Most important, he tracked back and his relationship with Mils Muliaina was slick and natural by the final game. Gear also manned up in that final encounter by staying on despite damaging his ankle in the first minute. With Isaia Toeava hobbling on the other wing, the All Blacks would have been in trouble if Gear had been forced off - so he played through the pain and scored two tries.
That commitment and ability to be used as a battering ram when needs be, has gone a long way to securing him a World Cup spot.
All Blacks: The joy of six
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