All Blacks: Henry opts for the appliance of science

Victor Vito has pace and power. Photo / Getty Images

It's oft said that assumption is the mother of all stuff-ups, which is the reason the All Blacks are going to deal in facts before they settle on their strategic vision for the next 17 months.

Their desire to be rugby innovators and not followers, as they were in 2009, is also why Graham Henry has shuffled into his new role as attack coach and strategic co-ordinator.

No one has a feel for the game quite like Henry. He still, even after almost 40 years coaching, has an undiminished passion for outsmarting his peers and an uncanny knack of building game plans that are ahead of their time.

It damaged the All Blacks last year not being able to adapt to kick-and-catch rugby. It hurt them the year before not being able to adapt to tap-and-go football under the ELVs.

So 2010 has to be the year they get it right and understand how the game is being shaped and revolutionised by the stricter law interpretations. The coaching panel have embarked on detailed research of Super 14 to see if they can discover any obvious trends. They are poring over statistics to see where the tries are being scored; where the space is on the field and what are the most successful means of exploiting space.

"I have a passion for watching where the game is going," says Henry. "It is very important we don't deal in assumptions. A lot of assumptions are made and we think we are right. Like now there is this assumption that defending teams are picking and choosing which rucks they will target for turnover ball.

"They will say not ruck one, or ruck two but ruck three we will commit numbers then. I want to see if that assumption is actually correct."

Henry has taken the attacking portfolio because there has to be some confidence now that for the first time in years, the game is set up in favour of teams who perform with the ball rather than those who prefer to play without it.

It's easy to be fooled by Super 14 - to see how well teams do by playing high-risk rugby and believe that tests will reward the same sense of adventure. It never quite works out like that, though.

But it does feel that there is greater scope to play expansive football in the test arena this year. If the referees are as strict at the tackled ball, offside law and scrum engagement in the tests as they have been in Super 14, then there will be opportunity to counter-attack and take more risks.

Henry and the panel have met with the senior players to hear their views on how the game is evolving in Super 14 and how they believe the All Blacks should play the game.

The last test in Marseilles is the blueprint from which much of the tactical approach in 2010 will be shaped. With the ball now being more quickly released from the tackle, the All Blacks will want to play with tempo and width and get their power runners into the game early.

Henry's biggest challenge will be hitting on a game plan that wins tests this year, builds confidence and can be effective at the World Cup.

Since 1999, the World Cup has been won by teams playing conservative, territorial rugby backed by rigid defence and accurate goalkicking. That's never been the All Black way in the professional era and Henry has to be sure, without showing his hand fully, that his side are playing a brand of football that will not be exposed as too flimsy at the big event.

Innovation will be everything. Being clever with the ball will reap rewards and this has not only shifted minds tactically, it has pushed the panel into challenging their selection criteria.

Henry says 2010 will be a year of consolidation rather than one of selection experimentation. But within that he says the panel have already seen some new players they believe could make the All Black grade.

Its policy these days for names not be mentioned but the best guess would be that Victor Vito and Sam Whitelock are the two who will be most closely watched in the coming weeks.

Vito has received detailed instructions from the All Black panel about what they want to see in his game and his rare ability to offload out of the tackle and create space through his pace and power are perfect for the current game.

Whitelock ticks all the boxes as a ball-winning lock who also hits rucks and cleans out bodies. He's been good enough in his rookie season with the Crusaders to keep out Chris Jack and Isaac Ross. It hasn't gone unnoticed that the Crusaders' scrum has been one of the best in the competition.

"I think the Crusaders have scrummaged exceptionally well," said Henry. "They have rotated three props very well so I think they will have to come into contention."

But, as restored forwards coach Steve Hansen pointed out, the best props are always helped out by locks who can make their weight felt - suggesting Whitelock is fronting in that area of the game, too.

The one unknown and uncontrollable in the overall picture is the attitude and ability of the northern hemisphere referees who have been appointed to officiate the All Black tests against Ireland, Wales and all three against South Africa in the Tri Nations.

"It's so important that the tests are refereed in a way the public understands," says defence coach Wayne Smith. "We have seen a lot of good rugby in the Super 14. We can't go back to players being on the ground."