All Blacks: Henry nears Cup judgment

Graham Heny: 'We've got to cater for every unknown in the tournament.' Photo / Mark Mitchell

The World Cup gaze is aimed at Eden Park in 100 days' time, but a more significant marker for All Black followers will be the inaugural Super 15 final.

That match is set for July 9, with plans to announce the All Black squad the next day for the streamlined Tri-Nations series.

That means a shadow World Cup squad is only 40 days away from public analysis and debate about their challenge for the Webb Ellis Cup.

Coach Graham Henry and his selection crew of Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith have been putting in plenty of travel to watch Super 15 games live, focusing on individuals whose contributions they want to compare as selection debates narrow to a conclusion.

They each have their methods, Henry preferring to draw on his steely gaze and computer data, Hansen using his instincts and network on forward patterns while Smith has used a special camera to track individuals of interest.

Henry is worried the extended format in the Super 15 is taking the edge off some of his test players, that perhaps they have paced themselves too much in looking to last through the event.

That was another new factor as the rugby world started to focus more on their final preparations for the seventh World Cup in New Zealand.

"We've got to cater for every unknown in the tournament," Henry said about his planning.

Some players will need to put in a major burst of activity and impact as in three weeks their deeds for the Hurricanes and Chiefs will be over.

The Highlanders' progress is uncertain, their playoffs future dependent on the outcomes of matches with the Force, Waratahs and Blues as well as other results, while the Blues and Crusaders should make the playoffs.

Henry and his buddies have been with the Highlanders this week, watching how the coaches deliver their ideas, seeing the work of the players, how the groups interact and offering their two bobs' worth as the competition works towards its conclusion.

A year from now, the untidy Super 15 will get even messier when it breaks to accommodate three June tests with Ireland.

But this season it is building to a crescendo and a finals series where the leading teams from New Zealand, Australia and South Africa are guaranteed a place with the next best sides making up the deciding sextet for three weeks of sudden-death deciders.

Over the next three weekends of pool play, the All Black panel have five local derbies left to peruse, games when they can sift more information about All Black contenders and compare performances of those shooting for the same vacancies.

And when they've done that again in the finals and feel they have their Tri-Nations squad sorted, they will check their decisions again.

This season they would have a very experienced group of All Blacks while Henry has been coaching sides for the past 38 years. He has said he has learned from every match during that elongated career.

When he took the British and Irish Lions to Australia in 2001, he was irritated with his coaching.

"I concentrated on trying to win the series rather than developing the players and getting to know them closely," he admitted.

"You learn from these things."

When his All Blacks lost against France in the World Cup quarter-final in 2007 in Cardiff, Henry assessed they had fallen through a mix of rest, rotation, poor foes in their pool matches and a dangerous dose of over-confidence.

For the past three years and seven months, Henry, Hansen and Smith have been pondering the All Blacks' chances of retribution while 16 players are still testing those selectors in New Zealand and wondering if they too will get a second chance.