Steve Hansen has drawn the inside lane in the race to be next All Blacks coach, a position that will be filled "before Christmas".
That comes with a significant proviso - if the All Blacks falter early at the World Cup, you would get long odds on Hansen getting a third chance in 2015.
Hansen is understood to have been assembling a team that he will put in front of the New Zealand Rugby Union board at the conclusion of the World Cup review, win or lose.
That team is understood to involve Ian Foster as his right-hand man and current kicking and skills coach Mick Byrne in a broader role.
Foster, who ended his eight-year reign at the Chiefs last month, has put opportunities in the United Kingdom on hold as he waits to see how the World Cup pans out. His fate, essentially, is tied to Hansen and the All Blacks.
Byrne has been working as forwards coach under John Kirwan with the Japanese national team to bolster his portfolio.
At least one senior player was told during the spate of recent contract negotiations that Hansen and Foster, who are respected among the players even if they have never been fully embraced by the public, were well-placed to take the All Blacks into 2012 and beyond.
In a candid moment, Wayne Smith even nominated Foster as the man to take his place as an assistant coach when he announced he was moving to the Chiefs next year.
However, the NZRU has moved to scotch rumours of pre-ordained back-room deals, reiterating its commitment to a contestable race.
"The process is very transparent," chief executive Steve Tew said. "There will be a review of the campaign, which will be done as quickly as [we] possibly can, win or lose.
"There will be a fully contestable appointment process for the All Black coach and our job is to ensure the greatest number of people that are eligible for that job are interested, ready and available."
The timeframe will be condensed, with Tew saying the new panel would be in place by Christmas.
To coach the All Blacks, candidates must have coached a New Zealand Super rugby team, in the Heartland or ITM Cups, the All Blacks, a New Zealand national team or completed at least three years cumulatively in any of these roles.
This "qualification" remains valid for up to five years from the date the coach ended his involvement with the New Zealand team.
Hansen is the logical successor to Graham Henry, who it is widely assumed will end his eight-year tenure in October, regardless of whether he is triumphant or vanquished.
Smith has signed on as an assistant to neophyte Super 15 coach Dave Rennie at the Chiefs.
That leaves Hansen, who wants the big job and has confessed to working on improving his public image.
One of the reasons Henry was successful in keeping his job after the 2007 World Cup debacle was because he put an experienced panel in front of the board, while Robbie Deans took a more Lone Ranger approach.
Should the All Blacks trip up later this year, there are a number of possible candidates, none of them with utterly persuasive claims.
The popular choice would be Todd Blackadder, especially if he wins the Super 15 while travelling every week, but he has told people close to him that he is in no rush and wants to win titles, plural, with his franchise.
A Super 15 title would see Pat Lam's stocks rise, but like Blackadder he has time on his side.
Clermont's Vern Cotter and Wales' Warren Gatland appeal as the strongest of the Northern Hemisphere-based coaches, although both have signed contract extensions that take them beyond the appointment date.
That would not preclude either from applying, though buy-out clauses might make them a little less attractive.
Joe Schmidt's Heineken Cup victory at the helm of Leinster has boosted his profile, though his tenure as assistant at the Blues was not always happy.
Robbie Deans would be the wildest of wildcards, even if he is the best qualified coach on the market.
All Blacks: Hansen, Foster for coach?
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