As the All Blacks begin their overseas campaign, John Daniell speaks to Herald on Sunday rugby columnist Sean Fitzpatrick - and finds that he is worried about the quality, depth and hardness of New Zealand rugby and would consider bringing Jerry Collins back from Europe.
Sean Fitzpatrick is worried New Zealand rugby could end up like Wales - where not enough kids play the game to allow the national team to stay at the top.
He is seeking neither sensationalism nor controversy - but he is genuinely worried the virtuous circle that has been the base of All Black success for more than a century could become vicious: "If the All Blacks aren't winning and if they don't win in 2011, we're not going to get enough kids playing rugby to stay at the top. We could end up like Wales."
Fitzpatrick immediately qualifies the Wales statement ("That might be a bit harsh ...") and throughout the interview, he is at pains to avoid fruitless points-scoring.
In any case, let's face it, he doesn't have much to prove. Any criticisms are meant to be constructive, so that this generation of All Blacks don't fall short.
Fitzpatrick knows what that feels like. The loss in the 1995 final still rankles - a copy of a South African book with Francois Pienaar, Nelson Mandela and the Webb Ellis Cup on the front is, apparently, always on his bedside table; reminding him how hard you have to work to be the best.
So does he think the All Blacks are heading in the right direction?
"The crux of the problem is that the NZRU are putting too much emphasis on the All Blacks and 2011. I'm not really in a position to say we need to do this or that, because I'm not in the middle of it, but my understanding of the All Black vision is that we want to be the best team in the world and win every game we play.
"That's the goal, right? Yet Isaac Ross is supposed to be the best lock in the country and we're not taking him away. The major work-on for this tour has to be the lineout - but the guy who is supposed to be our No 1 lineout forward isn't going to be there ... We've drifted back into this system of putting everything on the World Cup and I think the balance is wrong."
We have met on the outskirts of London, at the home ground of Harlequins, the English club that has always been considered a bit posh. Oil portraits of former club presidents line the walls in reception.
Fitzpatrick, who lives in nearby Windsor, is on the board here. He arrives straight from Heathrow after a weekend of golf, looking dapper in a navy suit. A slight limp from the knee that finally let him down is the only obvious battle scar after 270 first class games, including 92 tests, 51 as captain. The hair that was crewcut in his playing days is now long enough for a parting and has turned a distinguished salt and pepper grey.
Slightly worryingly, British rugby journalist Stephen Jones has been saying for several months that Fitzpatrick has turned into an English gentleman.
Jones, of course, has long been a fount of misinformation concerning New Zealand rugby.
But it is interesting to note that the man who used to be the self-appointed chief bleater among the English press corps concerning the All Blacks' "dirty play" has, along with his colleagues, found a new target in the Springboks.
The rise in volume from the cheap seats at Twickenham has corresponded with the rise to power of the South Africans - at the expense of the All Blacks - as the world's best team. It's unlikely this is a coincidence.
All Black forward play certainly seems to have lost some of its venom. Fitzpatrick, who Jones describes as "the hardest man ever to play the game", believes the problem is the crumbling base of the New Zealand rugby pyramid.
"You used to grow up in the sort of environment where you were the raw young kid stuck with a bunch of grizzly old bastards and straight away you know what's expected of you.
"Hardness was bred into you by the experience of those guys, by the demands they made on you, on themselves and on each other.
"I'm not talking about kicking anyone in the head. It's about presence: other teams need to know that they can't get away with anything. The problem is that club teams now have an average age in the early 20s.
"The Air New Zealand Cup, which would offer some possibility of learning the trade alongside older heads and All Blacks, is completely devalued.
"So the experience hasn't been passed on and you end up with Jerome Kaino complaining that the South Africans are 'physically intimidating'. Well, that's what they do if you let them get away with it."
Fitzpatrick regrets that domestic competition, which used to be our great strength, is losing out to the glut of internationals. He has already suggested using the Air NZ Cup as a qualifier for Super rugby.
"When you're down with 10 minutes to go in a World Cup quarter that you just have to win, you don't want it to be the first time that guys have been in that kind of situation. You can't tell me qualifying for the Super 14 semifinals has the same intensity. Mils Muliaina has been told to take time out next year from Super rugby - so that clearly isn't a priority."
The All Blacks have flitted in and out of the Air NZ Cup, then headed to Tokyo even before the semifinals were played.
"I know money is important but I would have thought the NZRU could create a brand where, in terms of the All Blacks, less is more.
"Look at the Lions; they're a great vehicle for rugby. I'm not saying it's easy but surely you want your best players playing in the knockout stages. And you'd get more people at the game, so more money."
Meanwhile, top Springboks have been fully committed to their provincial teams for over a month and will play the Currie Cup final before heading to Europe with the national side.
For whatever reason, South Africa have managed to hold on to nearly all their best players - and they insist on playing them.
As you might expect from someone who played 63 consecutive tests, Fitzpatrick is no fan of rotation.
"If you look at the Springboks, they have about 10 guys who are world class, who play every game and every year they bring a couple of younger guys through - this year they blooded Brussow and the Beast, while Bismarck du Plessis took the step to become a senior player - and they keep a strong culture going. Whereas we're chopping and changing all the time."
There does seem to be some questionable wisdom coming out of the All Black camp.
"A senior player told me that the way they train in the gym is as hard as a game. So they don't need to play because they're already getting an intense workout ..."
This idea elicits an incredulous laugh. Lineouts are unlikely to get much better in the gym. Nor is confidence. What would Fitzpatrick do to turn confidence around?
"I'd get the lineout sorted. It's the root of all their problems. We talk about lack of depth but these guys can play, they're just not doing the simple things well enough. You can't go week to week without fixing your basics. As a player I'd be ripping my hair out. And the scrums aren't as dominant as they should be - I saw a right shoulder shove only once in the Tri Nations, against South Africa and Smith scored a try."
So do we have the right coaching staff? Fitzpatrick says that similar doubts had arisen about the All Black coaches in 1994.
"We have to be prepared to ask hard questions, acknowledge our deficiencies and deal with them. We turned a corner at the end of 1994 when the leaders started challenging Laurie [Mains] - not undermining him but making sure that we were doing everything in the best possible way.
"I know Graham Henry is the right man but I'd like to think that Richie McCaw and the guys around him are now having a significant input into the way the team runs."
Henry might be the right man but are Wayne Smith and Steve Hansen the right men to support him? Fitzpatrick is more equivocal than in Henry's case.
"It's difficult to say without being on the inside. Graham Henry knows what's needed and I hope he's made the necessary adjustments."
More than 30 All Blacks selected by Henry are currently offshore.
There is talk of targeting one or two players to return in time for the World Cup build-up. Who would Fitzpatrick want?
"Hayman obviously and Nick Evans - and I'm surprised there hasn't been more interest in Jerry Collins. He's only 28 and I think he could have been managed better. His body got thrashed because of the way he played the game and he wasn't the sort to take time off but he's the kind of guy who gives us the edge we need in the pack."
Given the player exodus and the time it takes to build a team, perhaps the All Blacks could be reasonably pleased with their current standing?
"Don't start making excuses for them. The last thing they need is to be pampered. The professional environment is a bit different but I hope the mindset hasn't changed. I sometimes wonder if - World Cups excepted - some of these guys tell themselves that, if we lose, it's not the end of the world. I understand the pressure and if you're struggling to harness the fear of losing in a positive way, there are options.
"In 1994, we told the younger guys who were inhibited by it to just take the black jersey off and play the way they were playing for their provinces - but I wouldn't expect them to be comfortable with the idea that it's OK to lose to anyone."
Most of New Zealand rugby would agree that there's no school like the old school and Fitzpatrick has the credentials to be headmaster. After managing the NZ Colts and Blues, a move into the All Black set-up might have been a natural step.
"I'm still too close to it. There are other old All Blacks there. They know what it's about."
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