Regardless of what happens at the World Cup or whether Graham Henry wants to stay on, the All Black coaching job will be opened to challengers at the end of this year.
The New Zealand Rugby Union has decided to follow the recommendations made by the independent report into the 2007 World Cup failure and invite applications for arguably the country's toughest job. The move means that even if Henry steers the All Blacks to World Cup victory, he will have to apply to retain his job.
"We think this is the best way to go," says NZRU chief executive Steve Tew. "This was the recommendation made in the Tricker/Heron review [2007 independent report] and we want to have a fully transparent process, win or lose."
While Henry has not given any public indication of his intentions, speculation is strong that he will move aside after the World Cup.
Wayne Smith, one of his assistants, has been clear he doesn't covet the head role, having served in that post in 2000-01. He was close to shifting to Wales in 2008 to coach the Ospreys club and is open to an overseas shift.
Steve Hansen is believed to be focused on succeeding Henry and will be one of the strongest candidates.
Having been involved with the All Blacks as an assistant since 2004, and previously served as head coach of Wales prior to that, Hansen has the necessary experience and knowledge of international rugby.
The uncertainty and potential weakness of his application will be his choice of assistants. As Robbie Deans discovered in 2007 when he was favoured to win the job, a head coach has to present experienced and trusted lieutenants as part of his bid.
Hansen has a strong personal relationship with Chiefs coach Ian Foster and professionally they dovetail, with the former a recognised forwards coach and the latter a capable backs specialist. But Foster has announced he will be stepping down with the Chiefs after this campaign and is believed to have attracted interest from European clubs.
While Foster may be tempted at the prospect of staying in New Zealand and being part of Hansen's bid, he'd be taking a major risk.
European and Japanese clubs want coaching appointments confirmed by May-June this year. Can Foster turn down a well-paid, guaranteed job in Europe on the outside chance he could land a role as the All Black assistant coach?
If not Foster, then with whom can Hansen align himself? Todd Blackadder would potentially be a good fit but the Crusaders coach might have designs on being the head coach himself.
In a straight shoot-out between Hansen and Blackadder, the former would have the greater experience and knowledge, as well as a proven track record, having been instrumental in helping the All Blacks achieve a win ratio of 86 per cent in the last seven years.
But it is possible that, if the All Blacks fail again at the World Cup, the NZRU board will clean out all the remnants of the Henry regime, leaving the way clear for Blackadder.
Other than Hansen and Blackadder, it's hard to see who else might have a credible claim. Pat Lam's record with the Blues is patchy, although a successful campaign in 2011 could boost his case, while Mark Hammett and Jamie Joseph are in their rookie campaigns with the Hurricanes and Highlanders respectively.
Deans, off contract with the Wallabies at the end of this year, could enter the frame but it is probable the Australians have placed a restriction on his existing deal preventing him from immediately coaching another Sanzar nation.
Warren Gatland signed a four year extension with Wales last November and Vern Cotter is contracted with Clermont until June 2012.
The NZRU's rules state that to be eligible for the job, candidates must either have been working in New Zealand for the last year at Super Rugby or ITM Cup level or have at least three years experience in such roles accumulated in the last five years.
That rules out former All Black coach John Mitchell but strangely makes former Blues coach David Nucifora eligible.
All Blacks: Coaching job to open up after Cup
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