NZ Herald's Gregor Paul and Patrick McKendry talk about the All Blacks World Cup announcement, who should go and who should stay home.
The All Black selectors name their World Cup squad of 31 on Sunday. Gregor Paul asks the big questions ahead of the announcement.
1. Is Waisake Naholo a genuine possibility?
Naholo has been the best sports story of the year. Another Blues reject who washed up at the Highlanders and then made the All Blacks. His plot was thickened first by the unfortunate business of him signing then slithering out of a deal with French club Clermont and then breaking his leg on debut. But wait ... there's more - he headed off to Fiji for a miracle cure and is on track to be fit by the time the All Blacks play their third game at the World Cup.
How do the selectors feel about taking an injured player to England? What guarantee Naholo will definitely be fit at the time predicted and even if he is, what sort of contribution will he be able to make having not played since mid July? The final part they will have to weigh up is the relative strength of the other outside backs and ask whether they need to take such a big risk? The answer will presumably be no - and Naholo will be on standby during the tournament.
It's tempting to say Beauden Barrett except that doesn't appear to be the right answer. Barrett impresses as an all round footballer with pace, agility, great instincts and great skills. He hasn't impressed so much as a game manager and tactical director. He's the perfect bench option given his versatility and proven impact - hence he will be named in the 31. What about Colin Slade? Given he hasn't worn the All Black No 10 shirt since the last World Cup, the selectors see his value as a utility back. But they already have one of those in Barrett - so is there room for both? Unlikely.
Is the answer Lima Sopoaga then? Why give him the test at Ellis Park if he's not the back-up No 10? Why not play Barrett or Slade? It's over-cautious to give the fourth choice No 10 such a big test, just in case there are injuries and he's called up to join the squad. Sopoaga might be the answer.
3. Can they live without specialists?
The Wallabies are going with just two hookers and two halfbacks. Can the All Blacks do the same? It would be a risk at hooker given Keven Mealamu's age and profile. So probably they will take three.
Aaron Smith and TJ Perenara have been largely indestructible and probably could share the workload all the way through. But it's high risk - one injury and they are in trouble. If either Smith or Perenara is ruled out, it takes at least 48 hours to get a replacement to the UK. So that could see them having to rely on, probably, Dan Carter as a fill-in if needs be in a knockout game.
4. Do they need four locks?
Easy one this - no. They can manage with three. Whether they go into a knockout game without a specialist lock on the bench is debatable, but they don't need one specialist on the bench and one in the stands.
Nehe Milner-Skudder has impressed in his two All Blacks tests. Photo / Greg Bowker
5. Is Milner-Skudder a World Cup-sort of player?
In his two tests, Nehe Milner-Skudder showed his attacking game works at the highest level. The bigger question, though, is does he have a skill-set for the pressure world of knockout football?
The All Black back three will be competing for the ball in the air. They will need to be able to kick long and deep and be prepared to be patient, waiting for their counter attack chance. Is this Milner-Skudder's type of rugby? Everyone knows that it is most definitely Cory Jane's.
6. Would it be too cruel to leave Liam Messam out again?
It was coming down the home straight in 2011 that Liam Messam saw Victor Vito cruise past him and into the World Cup squad. Messam was devastated but picked himself up, delivered with the Chiefs and then, after being thrown an All Black lifeline, delivered. Since that performance in June 2012, Messam has become a good All Black. He's done everything expected of an All Black blindside.
Liam Messam has done everything expected of an All Black blindside. Photo / Getty Images
But his form has been a little patchy in 2015 - while Vito went well in his surprise call up at Eden Park. Messam has longevity as a trump card: plenty of previous good years in the bank to call on. Is that enough? And what if the selectors repeated history? What would it do to him?
7. Is it risky to leave Israel Dagg at home?
It's always tough to leave out an experienced player with a proven World Cup history. But the All Blacks have a world-class fullback in Ben Smith. Piutau and Milner-Skudder have also played at fullback in Super Rugby and Jane - should he be picked - played nearly all his early football there.
A back three of Smith, Savea and Piutau equips the All Blacks to deal with the high ball, gives them counter attack punch, a strike running fullback and also another potential decision-maker at first receiver if needs be. The only bit they can't quite replicate is Dagg's booming boot.
Israel Dagg's biggest drawcards are experience and his booming boot. Photo / Getty Images
8. How ready is Charlie Faumuina?
The big prop hasn't played since late May. His medical reports are good and his skinfold tests have been impressive. He's worked hard to keep his conditioning. But is he game fit? How would he go if he had to play 45 minutes against Argentina in the opening game? The All Blacks are likely to conclude he's not that big a risk - that's because they know that when he's at his best he brings power and impact and they have missed him this year.
9. Once they get to England, what will their selection policy be?
This is the question to which they have arguably given the most thought. They intend to be consistent with the one exception of the test against Namibia, which comes only four days after they play Argentina. The top team will be put out against the Pumas, significant changes will be made to play Namibia and then it will be back to the top team thereafter with perhaps a few tweaks as form, fitness and opposition dictate.
10. What do they need from the dirty-dirties?
There are going to be a few players who barely play. Their World Cup will be largely about training all week then watching from the stands. It's a tough gig. Attitude is everything. The selectors will be asking who has it and who can be trusted to stay in that support role without losing the plot.
