Join host Alex Chapman with special guests Buck Shelford & Michaela Blyde as they review the New Zealand v Ireland and England v Australia RWC quarter-finals. VIDEO/Spark Sport/RWC/Mark Mitchell/allblacks.com/Photosport/Gettyimages
I am surprised by Eddie Jones' decision to recall George Ford to his starting side and I think the All Blacks will be quite pleased he has made that call.
There are two things that concern me about it.
The main one is what impact it will have on England in defence. This is not the biggest back division the All Blacks have fielded but they will run straight at Ford and ask him to make a lot of tackles on the gainline.
If he gets knocked back and they make inroads then Jones will be asked real questions.
More than that I fear what New Zealand could do in the wide channels beyond England's outside centre.
Last week that was Henry Slade, and we saw when Marika Koroibete scored for the Wallabies at the start of the second half how dangerous it is if your No13 gets a read wrong and is caught out of position.
Australia were clinical on that occasion but New Zealand are a cut above anything England will have faced so far.
This week Manu Tuilagi is the man tasked with the hardest defensive job in rugby, marshalling that outside channel. Manu is in good shape and excellent form but he tends to defend with his shoulders turned in.
England rugby team player Manu Tuilagi passes the ball during training: Photo / AP
Ideally you want your outside centre to be able to drift and react to pace with speed of thought and action. For that reason I would actually have considered playing Jonathan Joseph in this match.
He is one of the quickest 13s in world rugby and knows everything there is to know about that position.
He would have added defensive solidity outside Owen Farrell and Manu.
Instead, Tuilagi has been picked to play there. John Mitchell, the defence coach, clearly wants them to defend zonally and in a straight line, which is great as long as they don't get outside you or find the edge as then you're scrambling and struggling to turn and make up ground.
And New Zealand are primed to exploit any gap in England's defence. Picking Richie Mo'unga at fly-half and moving Beauden Barrett to full-back has made them even more dangerous, with Barrett a master at seeing an opportunity and accelerating through gaps, particularly through that outside channel.
He combines speed of food with speed of mind and that's a very dangerous combination. England need to put a couple of high balls on Barrett early and smash him as soon as he lands, which I would suggest is what Courtney Lawes has been tasked with.
The second reason Ford's selection concerns me slightly is that it may limit Farrell's effectiveness.
I thought the captain was very, very good back in the fly-half shirt against Australia. His pass for Kyle Sinckler's try was world-class and his kicking from the tee was spot on. But what we saw last Saturday was how Farrell likes to kick to alleviate pressure when he's in possession.
It's his go-to move and that is a lot harder to do when you're a second receiver at No12 because the opposition will be all over you by the time you get the ball.
George Ford, left, and team captain Owen Farrell: Photo / AP
Considering the All Black team was named a few hours before England's I wonder if Eddie briefly considered changing tack and not playing Ford to counter that physical threat.
If he did we will never know.
There is no doubt that Eddie will live and die by this decision. If England win by five points he's a genius, and if they lose by five everyone will ask why he changed it.
That said, England can definitely win.
If you look at the packs it is like the roles have been reversed. New Zealand have picked a pack to play a traditionally English style of game, based on size and mauling.
England's forwards are likely to play in a more All Black fashion, based on movement and dynamism. It is even-stevens there.
If England are to win then it will be down to a couple of moments of brilliance in attack and they've certainly got players capable of those. They can't pay the All Blacks too much respect and they have to swarm all over them at any given opportunity.
Whenever we beat them it's because we force them into errors and encourage them to play too much rugby in their own half.
If the game does become scrappy then that's when Ford comes into his own.
There is no-one better at analysing what is going on in front of him and manipulating the defence accordingly. The main question is whether he will get the chance to do so.
And while this may come as a surprise to my many, many friends across the Severn Bridge I will be fully hoping for England and Wales to win this weekend. What better end to the World Cup could there be than that?
I'd say the two northern hemisphere sides have an equal chance of winning this weekend.
