With the USA predictably succumbing to England two nights ago, every team has now made at least one appearance at the World Cup. That is all that's required for the assembled punditry and public to make some sweeping judgments. Each round we'll pick a handful and try to determine whether
2019 Rugby World Cup: Fact or Fiction? What is true and what is not after round one
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FICTION: Not so long ago, the same people lauding Ireland's performance were lamenting that this World Cup probably came a year too late for this side.
Even if you disregard the warm-up internationals, the past Six Nations was bleak for the Irish. Favourites to win, they were turned over 32-20 by England at home and were pummeled by Wales 25-7.
One must also caution about rushing to judgment given how poor the Scots were. Some of their rugby, particularly in the opening quarter, was unfathomable. "We did not start with the energy, accuracy or aggression required to beat Ireland," coach Gregor Townsend said. When asked why, he could not come up with an answer. Tougher tests await, including a potential powderkeg of a quarter-final with the Springboks.
There are five, possibly six, teams here who'd give themselves a chance of beating the All Blacks – England, Wales, Ireland, Australia, South Africa and you can never rule out the French at World Cups – so to put the men in green at the front of that queue based on one result would be beyond premature.
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THE GAP BETWEEN RICH AND POOR IS GROWING
Conventional "wisdom" held that the more World Cups that the minnows attended, the closer they would get to the big boys. You know, the old the-only-way-to-get-better-is-to-play-the-best argument.
If you take it as read that the Rugby Championship and Six Nations teams are the big boys and the rest are minnows – and there seems little reason to dispute this, even with the inclusion of Italy in the "big boys" category – then the disparity is stark.
FACT: There have been six matches between Tier One sides and minnows to date, with the Tier One sides winning all of them by an accumulated score of 257-74, or by 43-12 on average.
Okay, you could argue that's not too horrific but you'd be kidding yourself. The All Blacks have yet to play a minnow and Italy, the weakest of the Tier One nations, have played two.
In tournaments past, smaller nations have shocked the bullies – think Japan beating South Africa, Tonga beating France, Samoa beating Wales – but it's hard to see where the shock is coming this time, although Japan might fancy their chances against Scotland.
The truth is the minnows are getting no closer to catching up. They're probably getting further away and this cannot do anything but hurt the credibility of the tournament and the sport as a whole. It should be a huge embarrassment to World Rugby officials as they work their way through sashimi and Suntory single malts while observing the quadrennial slaughter of their defenceless bottom-feeders.
The simple truth is that until the two big annual tournaments introduce promotion-relegation, nothing is ever likely to change.
THE REFEREEING IS TERRIBLE
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It must be so, World Rugby said so: "Following the usual review of matches, the match officials team recognise that performances over the opening weekend were not consistently of the standards set by World Rugby and themselves, but World Rugby is confident of the highest standards of officiating moving forward."
Hmmm, fancy that, carpeting your own after a typically volatile round of high-intensity footy.
The opening round saw Australia's Reece Hodge avoid a red card for a reckless challenge that left the Fiji flanker Peceli Yato concussed. Argentina also felt justifiably aggrieved when France's veteran flanker Louis Picamoles intercepted their ball late despite being blatantly offside.
Perhaps most curiously, it saw Romain Poite, never one to shy away from the spotlight, appear to back out of brandishing a red card to Samoa's Rey Lee-Lo for a reckless high hit on Russia captain Vasily Artemyev.
FICTION: A wise man once explained that rugby has laws, not rules. Rules are ruled by rulers, laws are argued by lawyers. In other words, there will always be shades of grey in rugby; the laws will always have an element of interpretation.
Consistency of interpretation is rugby's Holy Grail, and we don't need Dan Brown to tell us how elusive the search has been.
The idea, however, that the refereeing has been particularly egregious at this World Cup just doesn't stack up. Referees should be cautious before sending players off. The sport is a far worse spectacle when red cards are issued.
The offside line is tricky, yes, but it's doubly so because several team's entire defensive strategy is predicated on playing as close to the line as is possible.
Refereeing rugby is notoriously difficult. It hasn't been great so far but it hasn't been awful and, you have to hope, the best ones will get the big matches.
THE BOKS ARE COOKED
The assistant coach said it himself. Matthew Proudfoot, when asked to assess South Africa's prospects following their opening round defeat to the All Blacks said: "It almost seems like the World Cup is over."
Context is important here, as is the word "almost". Having invested so much passion and energy into that performance against the All Blacks, it would have felt like more than just a pool defeat. They dominated certain aspects of the match for long periods so it's only natural that the sense of devastation was acute – you just don't hear many coaches articulate that honestly.
FACTION: The whole point of this exercise is to take a stand, so this fudging here is borderline irresponsible. My sense is that the Springboks cannot win the tournament from here and it's not because no team has ever won after losing a pool game – that is one of those stats far less meaningful than it looks.
In 1991, England finished within six points of the Wallabies in the final despite losing to the All Blacks in pool play. In 2007, the same team was beaten 15-6 by South Africa in a tryless final of little beauty, but it could have so different had Mark Cueto's try after halftime been awarded. Four years later, France were desperately unlucky to lose 8-7 to New Zealand despite being beaten twice in pool play.
One of these days that stat will change, and it could be this year.
On balance it probably won't, however, because the Springboks play such an attritional, confrontational style that it seems hard to imagine they'll be able to keep up the intensity required for it to be successful over three straight knockout weekends.
When you think about it, the Boks have a knockout match before they even get to the quarters. Italy have been surprisingly good in dispatching minnows Namibia and were even better against Canada. They will go into their showdown with the Boks better rested and with more confidence than usual.
If South Africa win that as expected, they'll face a quarter-final against Ireland, who may or may not be the best team not wearing black at the tournament (see above). The road for the Boks from here is fiendishly hard, but not quite impossible.
