2011 may be our last opportunity to host, says Hobbs

Minister of Sport Trevor Mallard (left) and NZRFU chairman Jock Hobbs launch the bid for the 2011 World Cup. Picture / Fotopress

New Zealand's bid for the 2011 Rugby World Cup may be its last chance to host the tournament because of soaring costs, rugby union chairman Jock Hobbs said last night.

Details of the joint Government-New Zealand Rugby Football Union proposal remain sealed until they have been seen by the International Rugby Board in Dublin, where 25 copies of the 600-page proposal are due by Friday's bidding deadline.

New Zealand faces stiff competition from rugby minnows but affluent Japan and 1995 hosts and winners South Africa.

Hobbs said New Zealand, hosts in 1987, believed it could put forward a financially robust and compelling bid to the IRB.

But time was running out for smaller countries to host rugby's biggest event because of the escalating scale of such sporting pageants.

"It certainly adds an edge to the bid," he told the Herald.

"That is the likely situation, that it is going to become increasingly difficult for us to bid for the Rugby World Cup beyond 2011. This may well be our last opportunity."

New Zealand's capacity to host such a large-scale event is expected to be judged in part on the success of the upcoming Lions tour.

Eden Park will be redeveloped if the bid is successful, but even that means New Zealand's biggest venue will be able to hold only up to 60,000 fans, compared with 90,000 in South Africa and a similar figure in Japan.

Commercial hurdles, which scuttled New Zealand's attempts to co-host the 2003 cup with Australia, remain but Hobbs was yesterday confident they would be overcome.

Neither Auckland nor Wellington has so far guaranteed stadiums clean of advertising for the cup.

The Government and NZRFU would not say how much hosting the cup might cost, but the spinoff to New Zealand could be spending of $380 million, according to a feasibility study which has not been released, and $90 million in taxes.

The partners yesterday described the costs of hosting the cup, against likely benefits, as "acceptable".

A joint $30 million fund, two-thirds met by the taxpayer, has been set up to meet the costs of the initial bid and ongoing organisation.

Rugby officials would not say what the IRB's minimum criteria are for hosting the event, or whether there are revenue guarantees, but it has previously been reported that France is paying $126 million to host the 2007 cup.

The NZRFU's only opportunity to generate money from the tournament is through a share of ticket sales.

With the number of tickets available fewer here than in other countries, that raises the prospect of high prices or the NZRFU underwriting some of that cost.

"We have done some financial modelling, part of that is ticket-pricing. We're talking about 2011, so there is some distance away," said Hobbs.

"I don't think any assumptions can be made that it is going to be priced out of reach of New Zealanders, or indeed that there will be necessarily a subsidy.

"We think the financial modelling that we've done is robust and feasible."

The baseline commercial model for the bid uses a 55,000-seat Eden Park, although there are proposals to increase capacity from 47,500 to 60,000.

New Zealand will almost certainly be selling its rugby heritage as part of its bid, possibly to offset any financial shortfall against the other bidders.

Hobbs rejected any suggestion that indicated a "sentimental" sell to the IRB who rely heavily on Rugby World Cup revenues, especially through sponsorship and television rights.

However, he and Sports Minister Trevor Mallard spoke at length about the importance of rugby in New Zealand society when they announced the bid at a Wellington press conference.

Mallard said the efforts already made behind the bid made him "proud to be a New Zealander".

The IRB will decide the host in November.

The details

* The NZRFU and Government have made a joint bid for the 2011 cup.

* The bid alone is costing up to $3 million.

* A $30 million fund has been set up to meet costs if the bid is successful.

* There are no figures available to say how much hosting the cup would cost.

* But the benefits may be $380 million in spending and $90 million in tax revenue.

* The Government may help with infrastructure, but probably not stadium upgrades.

* Eden Park will be revamped to seat between 55,000 and 60,000 people.

* That will cost between $20 million and $130 million.

* South Africa and Japan also want to host the cup.

* The International Rugby Board will decide in November.