KEY POINTS:
The provincial championship kicks off this week with excitement heavily outweighed by dread of the hovering axe.
Come September, the New Zealand Rugby Union will announce that two - possibly three - unions will be dropped to the Heartland Championship as next year's elite competition will feature either
11 or 12 teams.
Nothing puts a dampener on a competition like the threat of enforced relegation - which will effectively be a death sentence for those unions unlucky enough to get the chop.
The timing of the announcement is unfortunate - by September the scramble will be on for knockout places, creating the surreal prospect of one of the last eight teams knowing they could go on and win the title and yet still face demotion in 2009.
Tasman have made life a little easier for the NZRU by undergoing an acrimonious split. Marlborough have decided they would rather go it alone in the Heartland Championship than remain part of an alliance with Nelson Bays, whom they believe enjoyed a better deal in the Tasman partnership.
Nelson Bays don't have the playing numbers, population or stadium to survive in the top division and will almost certainly be one of the teams culled.
Who joins them is almost impossible to guess and the whole issue is being treated like the elephant in the room.
Everyone is aware it is there - it is impossible to ignore - but there is a determination to be oblivious to its presence.
That's the way it has to be for the players and respective coaching staff. They can't control what is happening off the field and can only affect what is happening on it.
All 14 sides are aware that results this year will have little influence on the the NZRU's decision but provincial rugby has never needed external factors to drive motivation. It runs on intrinsic passion for the jersey and none of that will be diluted.
Review or no review, the same tribal instincts will be to the fore - the will to win will be just as fierce and the competition every bit as intense as it normally is.
It goes without saying that the big four unions - Auckland, Waikato, Wellington and Canterbury - are the most likely semifinalists.
Auckland, as the reigning champions, will be attempting to retain their title without 16 of last year's squad.
Given their losses - the players who have departed include Troy Flavell, Isa Nacewa, Saimone Taumeopeau, Brent Ward, Sam Tuitupou and Derren Witcombe - it's tempting to believe Auckland are in a rebuilding phase and unlikely to keep their silverware.
But coach Pat Lam sees it a little differently. He accepts the challenge has been made tougher by the exodus but believes Auckland can still be a contender.
"I think you have to get three main areas right; we have to have the environment, the leadership and the game.
"When you are a player all you want to know is 'what is my job' and 'what are we trying to achieve as a team'.
"That is all I am trying to do as a coach - get everyone on the same page to play for the team.
"Our academy system is working for us and there is a lot of talent available to us. There is no question of that. We have had to go back to basics a little bit - almost to where we were when I first took the job in 2004.
"We have placed a greater emphasis on things like ball retention and how to present."
If Auckland are to succeed, it will very much be in the same vein as Manchester United in 1997 who won the title with a host of talented youngsters who had virtually no experience in the top flight.
Ben Atiga and Nick White are about the only players with real experience behind them and it will be their job to get the best out of emerging talents such as wings Mapa Tuipulotu, Mikaele Pesamino, midfielder Winston Stanley and props Tevita Mailau and Charlie Faumuina.
First five Lachie Munro will be given the opportunity to establish himself now Nacewa and Nick Evans are overseas. Munro has a bag of tricks, played some engaging stuff in 2006 when he was given a brief stint at the helm and now needs to show he has the tactical awareness and game management.
Auckland face another tricky hurdle at the end of August when Lam will stand down to focus on his new role as Blues coach.
Commonsense suggests they will elevate assistant coach Shane Howarth as an interim head coach and advertise for a longer term option at the end of the season.
Auckland need to keep the disruption to a minimum as Canterbury, in particular, are well equipped to go all the way this season. They have a smaller quota of All Blacks than usual, leaving them with a seriously strong squad that includes Corey Flynn, Kieran Read, Mose Tuiali'i, Stephen Brett, Casey Laulala and Scott Hamilton.
Canterbury have a balanced mix of experience and talent and will be aware they have underachieved in the last decade, picking up only two titles.
Wellington have suffered from the same underachievement making four of the last six finals without ever getting lucky. They too have some experience in John Schwalger, Tamati Ellison, Thomas Waldrom and Chris Masoe as well as some fascinating youngsters in Victor Vito and first five Daniel Kirkpatrick.
Waikato will miss Jono Gibbes, who retired last week and will also be hampered by having a healthy All Black contingent.
Outside the big four, Otago and North Harbour will be the main challengers and the latter have pulled off some smart business in the last few weeks.
First they picked up Jimmy Gopperth from Wellington then they managed to snare Bernie Upton.
Those two signings, plus the possible availability of Rudi Wulf, Anthony Tuitavake and Anthony Boric for some rounds, has left coach Wayne Pivac upbeat about the season.
"There is pressure to perform. I guess we are one of the shining lights in terms of player numbers and population growth but we need to deliver some good results on the field.
"We have been a bit frustrated in our inability to get our best side on the track in the preseason but I think if we can and we can avoid injuries then we can be competitive."
Hawke's Bay are likely to be the other quarter-final contender after their fairytale season in 2007 but will no longer have the element of surprise.
