By CHRIS RATTUE
What is the difference between Northland's challenge for the Ranfurly Shield against Waikato on Saturday and their eight previous tilts at rugby's famous old prize?
Quite simple. They might win this one.
A bit harsh? Not really, considering the scorelines since they last held the shield in the late 1970s.
Northland captain Glenn Taylor, whose provincial debut was against Auckland in the 1990 challenge, concedes that there has been more than a tinge of inevitability to Northland's last few shield attempts.
"We would compete for 40 minutes and we gave it 100 per cent, but we probably realised we weren't going to be good enough," he said.
Northland (or North Auckland as they were then) last won the shield in 1978 after a controversial amount of injury time against Manawatu.
A Peter Sloane tighthead and subsequent penalty goal from Chippie Semenoff, with just seconds left, gave Northland a 12-10 victory.
North Auckland held the shield for five defences but it has been downhill ever since.
They came up against the great Canterbury and Auckland shield sides, which did not help matters. Their challenge scores since 1978 have been 9-39 and 3-29 against Canterbury, 6-32, 15-43, 21-41, 3-49 and 14-47 against Auckland, and 22-63 against Waikato two years ago. Hardly close-run things.
But make no mistake, Northland are treating this Saturday's match as a genuine challenge - forget any talk of NPC points being the name of the game.
Coach Bryce Woodward says the challenge aspect may even affect Northland's tactics at the end of the game if they are faced with a choice of a penalty goal which might get them a bonus point, or going for a try which could put them in a winning position.
"We are trying to downplay things a bit and we will prepare for the game exactly as we always prepare," said Woodward, who will not be calling in any Northland rugby heroes for motivational speeches.
"But we are excited about this as a shield challenge. In the past decade or so we have been beaten by 30 points and the results have been foregone conclusions. The history books, and looking at the teams man for man shows we are underdogs.
"We believe we will be competitive.
"Call me old-fashioned, but the shield means a lot to me and a lot to the players. Some [challenging] coaches have said in recent years that it's all about NPC points. That's not our attitude. You just need to see how desperate Waikato are to keep the shield to show what it means."
A Northland side with no current All Blacks and few so-called stars found their feet in the NPC First Division last year. Even though they may have been helped by the absence of All Blacks in other sides, they made great strides.
And while Woodward refuses to look past this game, it can be taken as read that the spinoffs for shield-holders are significant, especially in small town New Zealand.
A Northland win would set up a great shield defence against neighbours North Harbour who have never held the trophy.
Saturday will be an unusual occasion for Northland's revered leader Taylor, the captain of the Chiefs whose home base is Rugby Park in Hamilton. Not that Taylor sees any irony.
"Different competition. And I'm a Northland boy," said Taylor, who will now be in the position of trying to break Waikato rugby hearts.
Like Woodward, he does not downplay the significance of the shield in the professional era. And in some ways, the chance for smaller provinces to beat teams who have the advantage of being Super 12 franchise bases might even lend it a new significance.
"It's the greatest trophy in rugby in New Zealand," Taylor said. "I see it as very special. You don't get many chances to challenge and they are really big occasions.
"We beat Waikato last year, which might give us a little feather in our cap."
While many Northlanders will make their own way to Hamilton, there will be a couple of buses bringing supporters, including one carrying players' families.
"We were given tremendous support at our home games last year but it will be nice to get this support away from home," said the Northland skipper.
Waikato inside back Mark Ranby (ankle) has been ruled out of Saturday's match, joining Scott Couch, Clark McLeod and Damian Karauna as non-starters. Roger Randle (hamstring) is still in doubt.
Northland hope to have forward Mat Webber and backs Jason Shoemark and Jared Going fit for selection, but Fijian wing Fero Lasagavibau is likely to arrive in New Zealand too late to be considered.
Waikato Ranfurly Shield schedule
Rugby: Northlanders sniff the prospect of a shield boilover
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