Rugby: Northern exposure as stats tell tale of improvement

This time last year, the Northern Hemisphere was staring at an ugly statistic they showed little evidence of being able to alter radically.

Between 2000 and 2008, teams from the north had managed to win only 37 per cent of November tests against southern opposition. These are the games where they have home advantage; where they are able to field players just a couple of months into their season; to take on men with 10 months of solid football under them.

It should be their time to shine but, during the last decade, the November tests have only highlighted the gulf in class between the two hemispheres. The Southern Hemisphere nations won 86 per cent of the tests in June when they had home advantage and relatively fresh players. There was no redress in November - until 2009.

Before this weekend, the Southern Hemisphere touring side had managed only five wins - the All Black victories over Wales, Italy and England; South Africa's win against Italy and Australia's 18-9 victory at Twickenham.

France have beaten South Africa and Samoa; Wales have beaten Argentina and Samoa; Ireland have drawn with Australia and defeated Fiji; Scotland have beaten Australia and Fiji; England have beaten Argentina and even club sides Leicester and Saracens have defeated the Springboks.

Of the 14 tests played prior to this weekend, the Northern Hemisphere had clocked eight wins and a draw; almost a 60 per cent win ratio. Overnight, there was a fair chance of that improving, with Wales a good chance to beat the Wallabies; France an even bet in Marseilles; Scotland a realistic hope of beating Argentina and Ireland determined to win against the Boks.

Has the balance of power shifted back to the Northern Hemisphere?

"I think they are getting better. I recognise a lot more big players in their teams now. I see their line ups and I recognise a lot more names than I have in the past," says assistant All Black coach Wayne Smith.

"It's always been tough up here with the travel and the time of the year. Now I think we have quality teams to play against and there is not a divide any more."

But Smith has to be politic. He's not so silly as to offer the northern hemisphere ready-made motivation by talking about a gulf in class.

To the neutral observer, if there is such a thing, the analysis away from the statistical data, gut feel and immeasurables point towards there still being basic shortcomings in the skills of most of the northern hemisphere teams.

New Zealand, South Africa and France would be on one level - at least one step ahead of the rest of the world with the rest following behind.

The likes of England have the physicality and organisation in the forwards but lack the creativity and imagination to do much with the ball which is why, in their three-test November series, they scored just one try.

Scotland were able to beat Australia yet they barely had the ball. They won by playing to the wet conditions and delivering one of the best defensive efforts of the age.

Even Wales and Ireland, who have made some obvious improvements over the years, are not able to play with the enterprise and flair they believe they possess. Wales couldn't score a try against the All Blacks and Ireland tend to clam up when they are faced with a heavyweight opponent.

France are arguably the only northern hemisphere side that has developed some of the softer skills to cut open defences. The French are capable of offloading through the forwards and linking their backs and forwards in a way none of the other northern hemisphere sides can.

It's more pertinent to ponder whether, like Smith says, the northern hemisphere have they closed the gap in real terms - that is, have they improved their basic skills or have they simply benefited from the new rules which have made it easier for sides to prosper if they have brutal forwards and good kickers?

The best answer is that it has been a bit of both. The current game has played into northern hemisphere hands more than it has either Australia or New Zealand's. It is possible now, as Scotland and England showed last weekend, to stay in the contest for at least 60 minutes on the back of a big pack and a kicking game alone.

With set piece ascendancy and territory now the key facets of test football - more so than ever - the game is set up for the likes of England and to a lesser extent Scotland who can handle that but who struggle to give and take passes or put players into space.