KEY POINTS:
If most of the speculation about tonight's Ranfurly Shield match can be believed, all Waikato have to do is amble up the motorway from Hamilton and trot on to the pitch at Albany to begin a new Mooloo shield era.
The betting odds have done something rare in
shield rugby, installing Waikato as the hottest of favourites and making the holders, North Harbour, a clear underdog.
That is not sitting easily with Waikato's coach, Warren Gatland, who besides his impressive coaching credentials also has an extensive knowledge of shield rugby, having been in the side which in 1993 ended Auckland's mammoth, record run.
"If I were Wayne Pivac [Harbour's coach] I'd be loving all of the talk about us being favourites," he said yesterday.
"Shield rugby is a lot different from anything else. What has happened in any other Air New Zealand Cup match won't matter. We are expecting that North Harbour will lift and that it will be a tough, physical contest."
From his own background, and that of Waikato, Gatland knows that most successful shield bids come when, as Waikato did in 1993, the challenger can approach unsung.
Often, as was the case in one of Waikato's more recent challenges, against Bay of Plenty in 2004, it can be a disadvantage when expectations are too high.
As were the Bay in resisting Waikato three years ago, Gatland believes Harbour tonight will be just as determined and resolute.
But for all Gatland's caution, it is understandable why most pundits are predicting a Waikato win.
Waikato have a great history in winning and defending the shield. They have lifted it seven times - 1951, 1952, 1966, 1980, 1993, 1996 and 1997 - and trail only the titans of shield rugby, Auckland and Canterbury, in the number of wins.
Waikato's supporters have always been a huge boost to the players and more than 40 bus-loads are bringing their cowbells to Albany for tonight's game.
But again Gatland is cautious. He points out that few of the present side have much shield experience and only flanker Marty Holah played in the 1997-2000 era.
"And while we have a strong pack, we do have an inexperienced backline," he said.
All Black selections and injuries leave only first five-eighths Stephen Donald from the backline which played in last year's provincial final.
But it is a sign of how seriously Waikato are taking the challenge that they arrived on the North Shore 48 hours before kickoff. That avoided hassles in crossing the Harbour Bridge yesterday, and gave time for a captain's run on the Albany pitch.
Strengthening the case for Harbour being second favourite in a two-horse race has been their poor Air NZ Cup form. Harbour's only success this season - and its only win in the past six Air NZ Cup matches - has been the shield win over Taranaki.
But Pivac says there is a steely resolve in the Harbour ranks, and careful analysis has been done to find remedies for lapses in last weekend's match against Hawke's Bay.
He described tonight's match as probably "a defining moment" in Harbour's history.
With a win, it could at last establish its identity and perhaps even have a significant shield era.
"Make no mistake, we're really excited about holding the shield and I think the way we defended it against Taranaki has already won us support."
Encouraging ticket sales - and an advertising campaign led by the legendary Wayne Shelford - also suggest a healthy crowd will be at Albany to help counter the cow bells.
Signs are there ...
Is this an omen for a successful Ranfurly Shield challenge by Waikato against North Harbour at the Albany Stadium tonight?
In 1992, Waikato won the first final in the old national provincial championship, and the following season went on to lift the shield from Auckland.
Last year Waikato again won the first final in a restructured provincial championship, leaving only tonight's challenge to complete the NPC-shield double achieved 15 and 14 years ago.
Waikato loom as a powerful challenger, if only from the viewpoint of history.
Only Auckland (152 wins) and Canterbury (130) have better shield records than Waikato (52). Rounding out the top seven are Hawkes Bay (50), Wellington (44), Taranaki (36) and Otago (35).
For those who relish the shield being away from the big two of provincial rugby, there is a slight worry in a Waikato win tonight. The first-up challengers next weekend would be Canterbury. And if they won, they would face a challenge from old foes Auckland on September 29.
