Rugby: Lions' win - but for one factor

By CHRIS LAIDLAW

Having sunk to the bottom of the Herald's NPC picking pundit list following a series of awful calls, I need to go for broke now we are at the end of the road.

I need to pick Wellington to beat Canterbury tonight.

There are a whole range of reasons why this should happen.

First, and most obviously, Wellington are finally beginning to believe in themselves while Canterbury are beginning to look just a little uncomfortable over the last couple of matches.

There is no question about the fact that Canterbury would rather face any other team than Wellington in the final.

That explosive unpredictability strikes fear into any tightly organised, pattern-oriented team.

It is virtually impossible to contain it when it unrolls and everybody knows that when Wellington unroll they tend to blow the opposition off the park.

Second, in spite of the fact that Filo Tiatia is missing, Wellington have discovered a loose forward combination that is the quickest in the land by far.

They may be relative greenhorns by comparison with the likes of Scott Robertson and Reuben Thorne, but Jerry Collins and Rodney So'oialo have formed a potentially devastating combination with Kupu Vanisi which poses more of a threat to Andrew Mehrtens than anything thrown at him so far this season.

These three literally ran the Auckland forwards ragged last weekend and as a combination they are more than capable of doing the same damage to Canterbury.

If there is a secret to the dismemberment of Canterbury's continuity it is the kind of pressure on Mehrtens that only someone in the Kronfeld class can exert.

Vanisi is now unquestionably the leading openside flanker in the country when it comes to this kind of predatory activity and if things work out for him and his young sidekicks, then Canterbury will never develop their formidable rhythm.

Third, the Wellington backline are now getting ball regularly with time and space to move and that was always going to spell trouble for anybody trying to hold them.

Canterbury will have watched the Wellington backline run rings round their Auckland counterparts with a real sense of dread.

With Tana Umaga operating all over the field, the ability of Brad Fleming, Paul Steinmetz and Jason O'Halloran to break the line, and the finishing power of Jonah Lomu, Wellington have more raw scoring power even than Canterbury.

The Lions have opted for a more conventional approach to defence and counterattack and it is paying handsome dividends.

Their forwards appear more at ease hitting targets collectively and the tight five - for so long the Wellington weakness - were an absolute revelation against Auckland and they will be even keener to prove they can give Canterbury the same treatment as well.

And they just might.

There are other pointers as well as these.

Jason Spice is perhaps the only halfback who can make Justin Marshall lose his temper and his composure.

David Holwell is now a sufficiently capable tactical kicker to make Marika Vunibaka's life a misery, quite apart from the prospect of Lomu blocking out his sunlight.

I could go on.

There are probably another half-dozen reasons why Wellington should win. There is only one problem with all this, however.

Nobody believes any of it - and every sane shirt is on Canterbury to win.