Rugby: It's win or eat humble pie for Wellington

Wellington are likely to make the semifinals even if they lose to Waikato today, but anything other than a win will be tantamount to admitting the capital side are not good enough to polish the shoes of their semifinal rivals next week.

With persistent rain and strong northerlies predicted today, the match will surely be a close battle.

Such is the range of possibilities going into the last weekend of round-robin play that Waikato could finish anywhere from third to seventh equal.

While Waikato have not won in Wellington for eight years - a 39-10 victory in 1992 - they have consistently gone to Carisbrook and Jade Stadium and beaten Otago and Canterbury, so they can win away from home.

And they have had almost two weeks to get over losing the Ranfurly Shield.

Coach Kiwi Searancke knows what it is like to lose the shield and knows how long it takes to get over it: he was in Waikato's front row the day Wellington took the shield in 1981.

"It hurts for a long time, but you have to get over it and battle on," Searancke said. "So we're looking to put things back on track and get something out of the season."

Wellington coach David Rennie is worried about Waikato's ability to put the Ranfurly Shield blues behind them and hit back.

"They'll be tough. We know they've lost three on the trot and their whole season hinges on this game. If they lose this after losing the Ranfurly Shield, they've got nothing," Rennie said.

Waikato have made a couple of interesting changes. Hooker Guy Coleman lost several of his throw-ins in recent weeks, so the experienced Greg Smith is back.

Wing Roger Randle is out because of his shoulder problem, but his defence, or lack of it, was picked on expertly by Wellington in both matches last year. His replacement, Damian Karauna, is bulkier and a better defender.

Wellington's Alama Ieremia is over his hamstring problem, but there remained doubts yesterday over a back injury to reserve hooker Shane Carter.

In Pukekohe tomorrow, Counties Manukau will be playing for pride when they take on Taranaki. The home team have won just one match this season and are second to last, one point ahead of Southland. But they have been a bit better than their record suggests.

If they finish the season on a winning note, then Taranaki's faint hopes for a semifinal spot, if not already wiped out by earlier matches, would disappear.

Wellington: Christian Cullen, Tana Umaga, Alama Ieremia, Jason O'Halloran, Jonah Lomu, David Holwell, Jason Spice, Jerry Collins, Kupu Vanisi, Rodney So'oialo, Dion Waller, Milton Ngauamo, Morne van der Merwe, Norm Hewitt (capt), Kevin Yates. Res: Brad Fleming, Paul Steinmetz, Dan Kirton, Semo Sititi, Inoke Afeaki, Mike Edwards, Murray Driver/Shane Carter.

Waikato: Todd Miller, Bruce Reihana, Keith Lowen, Damian Karauna, Scott McLeod, Glen Jackson, Rhys Duggan, Deon Muir (capt), Marty Holah, Chresten Davis, Royce Willis, Jonno Gibbes, Deacon Manu or Paul Martin, Greg Smith, David Briggs. Reserves: Grant McQuoid, Mark Ranby, Ben Willis, Scott Couch, Clark McLeod, Martin or Denis Hazelton, Guy Coleman.

- NZPA