Rugby: Deans the man despite Jones-like record

Despite losing eight of the last 10 tests, Robbie Deans is unlikely to be sacked as Wallabies coach. Photo / Getty Images

CARDIFF - It was in Cardiff during this same November week four years ago that Eddie Jones learned his four-year reign as Wallabies coach was about to end, regardless of how his side fared against Wales that weekend.

The Australian Rugby Union considered seven defeats in eight tests simply unacceptable.

Jones would have to go.

The burning question now is how can Robbie Deans' position be so secure - as ARU boss John O'Neill stated this week - when Australia's record in 2009 is uncannily similar to that dire run in 2005?

The Wallabies take on Wales on Sunday (NZT) having won just two of their past 10 tests.

Before his sacking, Jones' class of '05 had lost three times to South Africa, twice to New Zealand, and once each to France and England on the spring tour before thrashing Ireland at Lansdowne Road in a result obviously viewed as meaningless to the doomed coach's employers.

Deans' mob have succumbed four times to New Zealand, twice to South Africa, beaten the Springboks once, as well as England at Twickenham, drawn with Ireland and suffered a first loss to Scotland in 27 years.

Why then should Deans, sleeping in the same Cardiff hotel at which Jones learned his fate, have the relative comfort of comfort of knowing he will be on deck next season even if the Wallabies stumble again on Sunday at Millennium Stadium?

There are several reasons, not least that O'Neill is not about to damage his own reputation by punting the coach he ushered in with much ado 18 months ago as the saviour of Australian rugby.

This consideration alone cannot be underestimated.

O'Neill, one of the most successful administrators Australian sport has known, is extremely unlikely to publicly admit he blundered in appointing the Wallabies' first foreign coach.

That aside, to even contemplate a coaching change midway through the four-year World Cup cycle requires having available candidates capable of successfully filling the void.

Presuming the ARU wouldn't go down the foreign path again, at least not immediately, there are no real viable options.

In truth, Jones, credited by the South African players as hugely influential in helping the Springboks win the 2007 World Cup after teaming with Jake White, remains Australia's most qualified coach.

But he won't be back.

There are options but they are limited.

Before Deans' late application, Ewen McKenzie - Jones' assistant during Australia's run to the 2003 World Cup final - was a contender to take over from John Connolly after guiding the NSW Waratahs to two Super 12/14 finals and three play-off series in five years.

McKenzie, though, has recently committed to the Queensland Reds after being shown the door at Stade Francais and is not one to walk out on a contract.

Of the other Australian Super rugby coaches, the Brumbies' Andy Friend and Waratahs' Chris Hickey need to achieve something at provincial level before being entrusted with national team responsibilities and the Western Force's John Mitchell is a Kiwi.

Randwick old boy Michael Chieka, who coached Rocky Elsom's Leinster to European Cup glory this year, could be a future possibility.

In all likelihood, though, the Wallabies' next coach is already working at the ARU.

High-performance unit manager and spring tour selector David Nucifora would almost certainly step in if Deans were to go - just as he would have if Deans had not come along in the first place.

But Deans isn't going anywhere. He is still the best man for the job and has had considerably less time than Jones enjoyed to turn things around.

While this season he shares a similarly poor win-loss record, as well as the same "you can get too much sleep" approach to life, Deans has two key things in his favour that Jones didn't.

Deans, with superior man-management skills, retains the full support of his players and he has also shown enough to offer the ARU hope that the Wallabies will be a force at the 2011 World Cup in New Zealand.

As captain Elsom noted this week, it's the players, not Deans, who are committing the exasperating errors that have cost the Wallabies so dearly both in the Tri Nations and on the ill-fated grand slam tour of the UK and Ireland.

The hope stems from the fact that, despite Deans introducing some 16 players to the test arena during his 18-month tenure, and thus reducing the average age of the current Australian side to just 24, the Wallabies have retained their place in the top three in the world rankings and remained competitive against the All Blacks and Springboks.

They have led the All Blacks at halftime in five of their past six straight losses to the their transtasman rivals and victory over the world champion Springboks in September is proof the potential is there.

It is worth noting that on the 2005 northern hemisphere tour Jones was without virtually a full team of injured players, including stars Stephen Larkham, Stirling Mortlock, Jeremy Paul and Dan Vickerman.

Equally, though, the absence of first-choice centres Mortlock and tour vice-captain Berrick Barnes and lineout leader Nathan Sharpe could well have been the difference between Deans being under pressure and the Wallabies shooting for the grand slam against Wales.

Wales coach and fellow Kiwi Warren Gatland perhaps offered the best perspective of where Deans and the Wallabies sit heading into their final test of the year.

"I've got a huge amount of respect for Robbie and what he's achieved in rugby and Super 14 and the successes that he's had," Gatland said.

"I think out of the three Tri-Nations teams, they're the team that's played the most rugby. They've got a very young side that are developing.

"There's a lot of potential there and they will gain a huge amount of experience from this northern hemisphere tour and, in two years' time, I think you'll see a really strong Australian side.

"They've been creating a lot. They haven't been finishing things off, but they do go out and try and play rugby and play the game in a positive style."

- AAP