Pacific grim

With all those champagne corks popping in Wellington following Sanzar's US$323 million [NZ$452 million] five-year broadcast deal, no one heard the bullet that was fired into the heart of Fijian rugby on the same day.

Vodafone, a long-time sponsor of the Fiji Rugby Union, announced it would withdraw its support at the end of the month because the team lacked international exposure.

But no one at the NZRU's headquarters was going to give two hoots about Pacific Island rugby taking a step closer to oblivion. They were too busy slapping each other on the back and regaling the assembled media with tales of boardroom heroism.

That is not to say the NZRU were wrong to celebrate what was a seriously fine piece of negotiation. Chief executive Chris Moller deserves his moment in the sun. In a buyer's market, Sanzar has done what media pundits said was impossible and increased value from broadcast rights.

Under the new deal the NZRU will receive roughly a third share, which equates to US$21m [NZ$29m] over five years, US$3m [NZ$4.2m] more than they get now.

However, the NZRU had the foresight to fix the existing deal at around US42cents, meaning that about NZ$42 million flowed into their coffers every year.

The New Zealand dollar is now trading at US71cents. If it remains at that level until 2006, the NZRU would receive about NZ$29m a year from News Corp, NZ$13m less than they earn at the moment.

That's if the Kiwi dollar remains as buoyant as it is, which according to the economic forecasts and currency traders, is unlikely.

The most important point is that even at the current exchange rate, the NZRU is confident it can achieve all its goals without having to dip into its reserves.

But nagging away in the background is a feeling that Sanzar has brewed trouble for itself down the track.

The greatest worry in rugby circles is that the game is failing to take off globally.

The News Corp negotiations represented an opportunity to expand both the Super 12 and Tri-Nations into new geographic areas.

A combined team from the Pacific Islands had a huge amount of popular support, especially after the Islanders played such a thrilling brand of football to run all three of the Tri-Nations heavyweights close earlier this year.

News Corp wasn't keen as the financial implications of introducing the Islanders were uncertain. They wanted more of the same as both Australia and South Africa are seen as huge growth markets.

That leaves Island rugby out in the cold. By 2011, when Sanzar comes to re-negotiate again, how attractive will rugby be to global broadcasters? Look at Scottish football where only two teams ever win - no broadcaster will touch the league with a barge pole.

Rugby will need new heroes, new faces, new styles and new champions to ensure corporate money remains in the sport.

New Zealand rugby's financial future is secure for the next five years. But long term, New Zealand can only get stronger if the Island nations, Argentina, Canada and the United States gets stronger.

Right now, the chances of that don't look good.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY