Otago will need a miracle

By CHRIS LAIDLAW

I have learned over the years that the worst prediction is the most predictable.

On the face of it Otago stand little more than a bolter's chance of lifting the NPC title in Christchurch tonight. Some things seem so pre-ordained that they are unstoppable, and a Canterbury win is in that category.

The evidence of the last few weeks has been overwhelming.

The way Canterbury absorbed the best Auckland could throw at them, then with contemptuous ease ran the Aucklanders ragged, showed why this team are at the top of the provincial tree.

But there will be no complacency against the old southern foe, even if every Canterbury player, with the possible exception of Justin Marshall, will know in his mind that he has a definite psychological edge over his opponent.

It isn't so much a question of individual talent. If that were the criterion, Otago would probably rate their chances as about 50-50.

Any team who can field about eight or nine All Blacks have got to be a threat. It is the sum of the parts that makes Canterbury so intimidating.

They are a team who find something extra from their exceptional teamwork and devotion to having each player serving all the others.

The level of faith and confidence is so solid that, like Auckland in the 1980s, Canterbury have such strength of character that it will require a miracle to get under their skins.

Otago have flattered to deceive far too often for comfort this year. Although they have probably the best coach in the world in technical terms, they have retained a curious brittleness, as shown when they caved in so abjectly against Canterbury in the round-robin match.

There is every chance the same thing will happen tonight and Otago will be lucky in the end if the margin is anything less than 10 or 15 points.

But the match is more than an NPC final. It is, in effect, a final All Black trial.

The bulk of the touring party will come from these two squads and there are still a few unanswered questions.

Can Anton Oliver match the lineout throwing of the master, Matt Sexton? Which of the two halfbacks will be No 1?

Is there an Otago lock good enough to accompany Chris Jack and Norm Maxwell? Can either of the Maugers foot it with Pita Alatini? Will Dave Hewitt once again embarrass the Otago props?

Can Tony Brown do enough to remain the understudy to Andrew Mehrtens?

Is Scott Robertson, rather than someone like Paul Miller, the answer at No 8 - or will they both make it?

Can Ben Blair get enough game time to force his way in?

Will Richard McCaw do another Kronfeld in the biggest game of his career and persuade the selectors that he is ready for the even bigger-time?

Can Jeff Wilson finally assert himself sufficiently to hang in there one more year?

It's going to be a very interesting night, even if the result is a foregone conclusion.

But if there is an Otago miracle, I will be sorely embarrassed, but not entirely unhappy.