On a wing and a prayer

By WYNNE GRAY

Louis Koen is considering a post-rugby career as a pastor and admits he prays before each of his goalkicks.

Those entreaties have brought him an incredible 89 per cent success rate this year, but it may take more than pleas to the man upstairs to save the Springboks from their sixth straight loss to the All Blacks tonight.

However, they must feel they have a better shot with conditions likely to hit at the All Blacks' speeding armoury and the multiple rearrangements John Mitchell has made to his pack.

The Springbok methods will be as obvious as they have been through the years. They will go to their heavyweight pack to bludgeon and drive at the new All Black formation, with back-up from the sniping of the wily Joost van der Westhuizen and Koen's deadly goalkicking.

In their heavy defeat at Pretoria, the Springboks showed their power early with lineout drives which splintered the All Blacks before the game loosened and they were put to the sword.

If the Springboks look to shift possession too wide they will open themselves up to the counter-attacks which have made the All Blacks so dangerous.

The plan will be to spoil and negate, slow the game down, apply pressure, scavenge and disrupt.

This is the best Springbok side they can muster, but there is a talented group at home recovering from injury. Werner Greef, Jaco van der Westhuyzen, Breyton Paulse, Robbie Fleck and Marius Joubert are all backs who would make a huge difference if fit and grafted to a solid pack.

Add the recovering Jannes Labuschagne, John Smit and perhaps Bobby Skinstad to the forward mix and the Springboks look much more formidable. But the present side remain vulnerable. They may defend strongly, but their attacking strikepower is limited, aside from Koen's goalkicking.

The All Blacks' pragmatic plans to involve more of their squad in this test could deliver them some patchy problems for the final two domestic internationals.

The scrum suggests solidity, but the lineouts may be more difficult. There are questions about the effectiveness of Ali Williams and Brad Thorn in the lineout, and it may be a game where Reuben Thorne or Jerry Collins is used.

If the Boks' tall lineout shuts down Williams or the tail of the All Blacks' lineout, Thorn might be the target at the front. However, that is no guarantee, and it is also not the attacking ball the All Blacks prefer.

The five changes in the pack will also test the effectiveness of their combinations, only tried on the training field but not under the intense pressure of a test.

It will also have the flow-on effect next week in the Bledisloe Cup decider if the original pack are reunited, because they will not have played together for three weeks.

But they are risks the All Black selectors believe they must take in this World Cup season. They justify it in terms of keeping all players in the loop and do not see it as a gamble.

The goalkicking of Carlos Spencer will again be under scrutiny, though he did find an ally in Koen, who spoke of kicking in NZ as perhaps the most difficult in the world.

There will also be expectation and hope for Leon MacDonald if he is given a chance from the subs bench.

Tonight, more than the previous two tests, the All Black forwards must be tight, disciplined and in concert. Dunedin will at best be cold and Carisbrook will have some dew.

But the All Blacks have to rise above those concerns to show they have found their rhythm, to show they can sting with a variety of weapons in any conditions.

* Carl Hoeft withdrew from the team yesterday with a calf injury. He was replaced by Dave Hewett, with Greg Somerville moving onto the bench.