Canterbury 23 Waikato 15
The picture is suddenly crystal clear for Waikato: win their last three games and they'll make the semifinals. Anything less, and their fate is out of their own hands.
In their last two matches they have made significant contributions but come away pointless, and that's making life tough as teams jostle for positions on the run home.
Vilimoni Delasau's last-minute try at Jade Stadium, combined with Ben Blair's touchline conversion, moved Canterbury eight clear and out of bonus-point range for the Ranfurly Shield challengers.
And that means Waikato sit sixth on the table on 13 points, with nothing to show for losses to Auckland and Canterbury, despite leading both games at halftime and providing lots of the entertainment. Otago are fourth, on 19.
"We've put a lot into them and to be fair probably deserved to get more out of them," Waikato captain Steven Bates said yesterday. "It was a difficult pill to swallow on Saturday night."
Waikato travel to Albany to play resurgent North Harbour next Sunday. It could be a semifinal deal-breaker for both teams and Bates acknowledged Waikato's task is a no-brainer.
"It's a simple scenario. We win three, we make the semis. Win two, then we've got to worry about other teams getting beaten.
"That's all we can be concerned about, one at a time. Just concentrate on what we're doing.
"If we lose this week, it's a sad thing to say, but that's us for 2005."
Waikato have never lifted the shield in Christchurch, but they came desperately close on Saturday. Inspired by All Blacks Byron Kelleher, Marty Holah and Sione Lauaki, they put some serious heat on the holders.
Lauaki in particular caught the eye. He delivered some ferocious runs, one try-saving tackle on Mose Tuiali'i, and one high shot which counted Cameron McIntyre out of the match. More is likely to be heard about that today.
But Canterbury are not the dominant force in New Zealand rugby by luck. They absorbed a fierce early onslaught, before Casey Laulala and Johnny Leo'o combined to put Caleb Ralph over in a fine 90m breakout.
Three times Waikato got over the Canterbury line but couldn't finish it off, testimony to inspired defence on two occasions and butterfingers from fullback Sosene Anesi when he could not scoop up his own kick ahead a metre from the line.
It is no consolation that Waikato's two tries were memorable. Kelleher, in his first game since being clocked round the head by Victor Matfield at Cape Town on August 6, showed terrific determination in gathering Bates' kick ahead, then hold off four tacklers in a staggering, lurching 25m run to the right corner.
The other one, midway through the first half, was a clever piece of work, centre Keith Lowen looming up on David Hill's left shoulder to take the deft popped pass and scoot through a gap for a finely constructed try.
Waikato were ultimately undone by the peep of referee Lyndon Bray's whistle five minutes from the end. Hill had just banged over a 46m penalty to put the challengers 15-13 up.
From the restart Bray penalised the indefatigable Kelleher for not releasing. The sure sign of an outstanding - as opposed to merely very good - goalkicker is when you know he'll kick a difficult goal. Ben Blair lined up the shot wide on the left and it never looked like missing.
Waikato had to chase the game and when a ball fell to ground behind the defensive line, Delasau had a straightforward job to toe ahead and score. Blair's conversion gave him a perfect five from five.
"They've got a winning culture. When the pressure comes on they really front up," Bates said of Canterbury.
Waikato have lost their last three games. Now it's time to roll their sleeves up for a late-season points scrap.
Waikato's challenge
v North Harbour, Albany, Sunday
v Bay of Plenty, Hamilton, October 1
v Otago, Hamilton, October 8
Waikato must win last three
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