Some provinces facing killer cuts

Over the next few weeks a group of people will make decisions that will affect parts of the New Zealand rugby landscape forever.

They are assessing the merits of 14 bidders for places in the professional premier NPC to start next year.

It's a tricky business. The New Zealand Rugby Union has ruled that no more than 12 teams will fill the premier division. There are 15 applications for places in the amateur, modified first division, but no guarantees they'll all pass the criteria laid out by the national body.

And, because this is rugby, the whispers are already out as far as the professional division goes.

Here's three doing the rounds:

* The Rugby Union is looking down the line at its bid for the 2011 World Cup. With that in mind they need 12 stadiums of a certain standard, hence the facilities part of the criteria, and the reason there is plenty of weight attached to each bidder's ground.

* The NZRFU wants each of the five Super 12 franchises to have at least two unions in the premier division. That is good news for Southland and Nelson Bays-Marlborough, known as Tasman, but may be bad for the likes of Northland and Manawatu.

* There may be fewer than 12 teams in the premier division. But that would send a negative signal to the world - ie, the International Rugby Board - about the general state of New Zealand rugby, as it looks to put its hand up for 2011.

The 14 bidding for professional status are: Northland, North Harbour, Auckland, Counties Manukau, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Taranaki, Hawkes Bay, Manawatu, Wellington, Nelson Bays-Marlborough (or Tasman), Canterbury, Otago and Southland.

The panel assessing the bids comprises NZRFU chairman Jock Hobbs and board members Graham Mourie, Paul Quinn, Mike Eagle and Warwick Syers.

It is widely accepted that it will boil down to six applicants vying for four spots - Northland and Southland from this year's NPC first division; Counties Manukau, Manawatu and Hawkes Bay from the second division; and the merged Tasman bid, combining a second and a third division union this year.

Talk to those involved with the provinces and two points come through loud and clear: plenty of sympathy for those who will miss out and a fervent belief that their union have done everything asked of them and should be included.

The basic premier division criteria includes population, both current and forecasted figures; player and club numbers, training and development structures; whether bidders have academies, team management structure, playing history, financial position and the calibre of a bidder's governance and administration.

The smart bidders have done their homework, not only on their own case, but their rivals.

Take Counties Manukau. Chief executive Nick Shepherd said Counties Manukau had done its analysis on its rivals "to make sure we are making our case as strong as possible with regard to where their strengths and weaknesses lie".

They have been in the second division since being relegated in 2001 and are underpinning their argument with a strong business case.

Shepherd quotes impressive figures in terms of GDP for Manukau City, the number of businesses in the union boundaries and talks of projected population growth.

"Manukau will be the second largest city to Auckland by 2010. The New Zealand Rugby Union has to sit down and think, 'hang on, under the current provincial union boundary structures, we're going to have the two largest cities in the country producing 22 rugby players. In 2021, over 1 million will be living in the Auckland union boundary'."

Counties have also proposed moving to Ericsson Stadium, which is almost 13km outside the provincial boundary, as Growers Stadium does not comply with the stadium criteria. "The board is not prepared to invest that sort of capital expenditure until we know we're in the competition and until we explore all stadia options within the boundaries once we have all the information on the table."

Shepherd believes his union has got key elements that the NZRFU are looking for. He said: "Jock Hobbs addressed us in July last year. He said the current format was not a sustainable model moving forward. Change was required and here's the terms of reference. We've worked within those terms and fingers crossed we're in it."

And if they miss out? "If you're looking at it from the gap perspective between the haves and have nots, the gap is already very visible. In three years' time, with a purely amateur union, the gap will be just about insurmountable."

At Northland, who have only secured their first division place by winning the end-of-season playoff with the second division winners in the last two years, they can't envisage the new professional competition without the home of the Going brothers and Peter Jones being part of it.

"I realise this is in the best interests of New Zealand rugby, but as far as Northland are concerned it's not in the best interests of New Zealand rugby to remove us," chief executive Tim Hamilton said.

Hamilton applauded the process the bidders have gone through, describing it as robust and positive. He also believes the union was right to take a hard look at the NPC in the light of the enlarged Tri-Nations and Super 12 competitions and the new television contract with News Corp.

"Once the competition criteria came out, it has been good from a business perspective to look at our business systems and procedures, on and off the field. That's right from developing programmes to encourage kids to want to play for Northland through to making sure the infrastructure and stadia are sound to host premier fixtures."

As the one bidder to have had the cold hand of relegation hover over them in the last two years, Hamilton said having a three-year cushion would give Northland a measure of certainty and an ability to build rather than worry from year to year.

"It had to flow on and some extra energy and vitality in the competition doesn't hurt. If that means expansion I think that's exciting."

And if Northland miss out, "I don't really want to contemplate that. The outcome would be devastating."

Manawatu would appear to have the weakest case. They've been out of the first division for 17 years, their halcyon days of fielding 10 All Blacks in the 1970s are a distant memory.

But they have a refurbished stadium, claim to be the 10th highest union in playing numbers and insist the financial criteria through to 2008 will be covered through deeds of commitment from Palmerston North companies.

"We're confident they'll have difficulty turning us down. We're the outsider to come through in this," chief executive Hadyn Smith said.

Hawkes Bay have been on the cusp of the first division for the last few seasons, and it's a vibrant part of the country, while the Tasman bid is likely to benefit from Canterbury muscle. Nelson Bays and Marlborough have formed a new constitution and transferred assets and liabilities of both unions.

"Based on what's in the submission and given that this is an area that's going ahead in terms of growth, all the indicators have been positive," Nelson Bays chairman Max Spence said.

There's money in Southland, but perhaps not the population growth. They have been a regular first division province, if perennially in the bottom half.

The union has a proud history, but are not alone among the bidders in that. They might have a tough sell.

One thing is for sure: there will be tears when the decision is made. Counties Manukau's 50th jubilee celebrations are a week after the announcement. It'll be feast or famine in Pukekohe.

Don't be surprised if there is an appeal of some kind or a legal challenge.

After all, it wouldn't be a truly professional environment without the legal eagles getting a look in.

THE STORY SO FAR

* The 27 provincial unions are split into three divisions. The NZRFU is moving to create a premier professional division of up to 12 unions and a modified amateur first division of up to 15 places. The new divisions start next year.

* All unions had to apply for places irrespective of which division they want to be in.

* Fourteen applications were received for the premier division. They came from the 10 NPC first division teams of last year, plus second division unions Hawkes Bay, Manawatu, Counties Manukau and a combined Nelson Bays/Marlborough bid. At least two will miss out.

* Criteria is in place that applicants had to meet. They range from playing numbers, training and development structures, playing history, financial position, governance and administration and current and forecast population growth.

* A subcommittee of the NZRFU will assess the bids. Applicants will be allowed to speak about their bids early next month for about 45 minutes. The subcommittee will make recommendations to the full board.

* The final decisions will be announced by the NZRFU on May 27.

* An initial three-year term will apply to allow stability in the premier division. If all teams are continuing to meet the criteria it may lead to a further three-year extension.

* The big fear for those who miss out on premier places next month is that the game in their region will wither in terms of playing numbers and interest.