KEY POINTS:
Tasman are in such a state they already have their neck in the guillotine but the New Zealand Rugby Union face an impossible choice in deciding which other union, or unions, will be culled in September.
A document released last week revealed the NZRU believes the Air New Zealand Cup needs to become either a 12-team or 11-team competition from next year.
The decision on which unions survive will be made on six criteria - population, player numbers, playing history, governance, financial health and training/development facilities - with specific weightings attached.
Tasman's chances of survival are rated slim, as the Marlborough component of the alliance with Nelson Bays has declared its intention to split.
Tasman chief executive Peter Barr said that there has been a disgruntled faction from Marlborough aggrieved by their lack of player representation within the combined Tasman team.
Unhappiness has also been allowed to brew over to the perception that new players coming to the region are placed with Nelson Bays clubs rather than Marlborough.
Recent financial concerns that arose as a result of the crippling bank loan on Lansdowne Park have been used by representatives of Marlborough to dismiss the merits of the merger and justify their belief they'd be better off going alone and playing in the Heartland Championship.
Barr said that despite having now reached a deal to sell the ground to the Marlborough District Council which will repay the loan, the future doesn't look secure for either Tasman or Nelson Bays.
"The Marlborough constituent has expressed a desire to split apart," said Barr. "That will put our participation in jeopardy. If the NZRU stick purely to the criteria, we will be vulnerable.
"But my view is that we have strong support from the Crusaders, who don't want to be selecting from just one Air New Zealand Cup province. We submitted to the NZRU a view that the new competition should have 14 teams and that it could become semi-professional where All Blacks didn't play and there was some involvement from Super 14 players.
"But really to participate you had to play club rugby. I don't think we can revisit that now. We have given the NZRU to make a decision, however difficult that decision might be."
The difficulty of that decision should not be underestimated. Of the other three unions that gained promotion to the elite division in 2006, all can make a compelling case to be involved in 2009.
Hawke's Bay were the stars of last year's show, have around 6500 registered players, have made a small profit for the last two years, have cash reserves and a rich playing history.
Strengthening their cause further is strong financial support from the local economy that has seen income more than double from about $2.2m to $5m in recent years "The people of our region are hugely excited by what lies ahead," said Magpies chief executive Mike Bishop. "We are reasonably confident we exceed all the criteria."
Manawatu, with 4500 registered players and a regional population of about 120,000, also believe they can make the cut. The region is another with strong community support and also has Massey University and two top performing schools in Feilding High School and Palmerston North Boys' High.
Counties-Manukau finished 14th last season but can point to finals appearances in the 1990s, financial prudence as well as the fastest-growing population in the country with the richest ethnic mix.
The greater Auckland region and particularly South Auckland has been targeted by the NZRU as an area to improve participation rates and build clear aspirational pathways.
To eliminate Counties from the elite competition would potentially see New Zealand turn its back on one of the richest talent pools in world rugby.
But, as Barr says: "At the forum back in March we asked the NZRU to take control and make a decision on this. We agreed that 14 teams was not economically sustainable."
Could Northland, then, be given the chop? Their financial health is questionable after a $350,000 loss last year and limited success on the field in recent years. Yet, against that, they can site a long history of success, the development of iconic All Blacks and ambitious development plans for Okara Park.
What about the Bay of Plenty - they lost $750,000 last year? Again, they have a huge player base, a growing population and local businesses prepared to step into the financial breach.
Other than a fractured Tasman, every union, it seems, can make a just case to be included.
A decision will be announced in September.
