Waikato secured a semifinal spot with a victory over defending champions Canterbury but will only find out tomorrow if they also have home advantage in the playoffs.
Auckland will overtake Waikato and secure a home semifinal - against the Mooloo - if they score a bonus point victory over Tasman at Eden Park tomorrow afternoon.
Despite last night's defeat at Waikato Stadium, Canterbury have finished top of the ITM Cup, making them favourites to retain their crown.
In a sub plot to last night's match, All Black wing Sitiveni Sivivatu returned to action after a six month layoff following shoulder stabilisation surgery. Sivivatu came on for the second half and had a couple of promising moments in a game that lacked shape.
Waikato shunned a bid for two late tries, going for goal instead of bidding for two late tries that would have gained them a bonus point and gained them certain home advantage for the semifinals.
But Waikato still had plenty to celebrate with rookie first five-eighths Trent Renata setting up the victory with an excellent goalkicking display, landing his first six shots before failing with a late attempt, while replacement halfback Tawera Kerr-Barlow also made his mark.
Canterbury lacked their traditional accuracy on attack, dropping passes and failing to take advantage of breaks.
A fabulous long, looping pass from Kerr-Barlow set up Sosene Anesi for a 55th minute try which gave Waikato a crucial 23-6 advantage and an off-colour Canterbury never really threatened a comeback.
In contrast, Waikato took their chances and kept their errors to a minimum to deny Canterbury a decent shot at overhauling them.
Anesi had earlier blown a try chance, dropping the ball with the line open, although a touch judge may have missed a Waikato foot over the sideline.
Waikato may also have been fortunate in being awarded the five metre scrum which led to the Anesi try. But the home side were making most of the running and their pack had smashed Canterbury in a couple of scrums.
The first half was as memorable for the madcap incidents as the rugby.
A slade clearance from behind his goal line hit the goalpost, leading to one of Renata's three penalties in the half.
And a clearance from the Canterbury wing Telusa Veainu flew into the face of the red and blacks' flanker Matt Todd.
Around that was a helter skelter game dominated in the main by Waikato, although Canterbury did not let them get too far ahead thanks to two late penalties to Colin Slade.
Renata, elevated to replace the recalled All Black Stephen Donald, nailed three penalties for three attempts to get Waikato off to a good start.
Waikato No 8 Alex Bradley smashed through the middle of a ruck for the opening try - after a dab from halfback Malcolm Barnes - to give Waikato a 16-0 lead.
A minor disaster struck Waikato from the kick-off though with a reception going astray leading to a ruck penalty against Aled de Malmanche.
Canterbury need scant invitation to storm back into matches and Slade landed the goal to get his side under way.
For a top of the table clash, it had been a messy if willing and sometimes entertaining first half.
Canterbury second five-eighths Ryan Crotty, who made a couple of breaks, was the best back on show in the spell. This was an advertisement for the depth of Canterbury rugby, with Crotty stepping up for new All Black Sonny Bill Williams.
Overall though, the quality of the game was clearly affected by the absence of leading players.
Rugby: Waikato secure semifinal spot
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