Rugby: Provinces win back fans

The Ranfurly Shield clash between Wellington and Auckland drew a television audience of 260,000. Photo / Getty Images

New Zealand has fallen back in love with provincial rugby. Viewing figures for this year's national championship are up a staggering 65 per cent and last week's Ranfurly Shield clash in Wellington drew an audience that no Super 14 game managed until round eight.

More than 260,000 people watched Auckland go agonisingly close. In comparison, the highest TV audience in the first five rounds of Super 14 this year was the 186,000 who watched the Hurricanes lose to the Waratahs.

More than 220,000 also watched Auckland play Canterbury in round two - whereas only 145,000 tuned in to see the Hurricanes beat the Crusaders at a similar stage in this year's Super Rugby.

Crowds have been more impressive, too. Almost 12,000 people were at the local derby clash between Bay of Plenty and Waikato and a similar number saw Waikato scrape home against Manawatu. Almost 8000 people made it to watch the Turbos beat Otago on a Thursday night and there was the unusual sight of close to 6000 people crammed into the Kerikeri Domain when Auckland defeated Northland.

Last year, the Air New Zealand Cup could barely raise six-figure TV audiences but its popularity is now booming to the extent an argument could be made to say that, in terms of public interest, it outranks Super 14.

There's every chance the table will look entirely different by the end of October but for now, it's a source of intrigue.

The bad old days of the Super Rugby franchise bases dominating are gone. The team to beat are Bay of Plenty. Southland and Manawatu are going to trouble everyone they play. Hawke's Bay haven't quite hit the form they would like but should still be in the playoff mix, while Tasman, so close to extinction last year, are taking scalps.

Other than Counties Manukau, there are no easy beats. Predicting winners is a fraught business and after years of trying, the NZRU finally have a genuinely even competition, where the outcome of each contest is not known before kickoff.

The big question now is whether the national body needs to rethink its plan to axe four teams at the end of the year. Are they going to be guilty of killing this long-suffering championship just as it is climbing off the slab and springing into life?

The NZRU finds itself in an impossible position. In 2006, the NZRU board ignored the advice of the lengthy and expensive Competitions Review and opted for a 14-team premier division when the recommendation was to go no higher than 12.

Last year, the board again went against the research by sticking with 14 teams when the recommendation was to dump Northland and Tasman.

Having twice refused to wield the axe, the NZRU board have been publicly hammered for being indecisive and weak. So they are under pressure to prove they can make a tough decision. Several weeks ago, it was announced that the 2010 championship will be reduced to 10 teams and a six-team intermediate division created.

That followed a conference in March where there was consensus among the provinces that the costs of the current set-up were unsustainable.

But some unions believe the landscape has changed. The recession is lifting and sponsorship dollars are starting to trickle back. Player costs are under control. The overseas market has cooled off and eased the inflationary pressures.

And, of course, there has been a welcome lift in revenue from increased gates.

"My view is don't wreck what is not broken," says Manawatu chief executive John Knowles.

"We have all spent so much to get where we are now. The biggest problem has been the cost of the players and that is much more under control now.

"We had a financial black hole last year so we pulled everything apart and are hoping to break even by year end."

What worries Knowles and many of his fellow chief executives is that maybe there hasn't been a wide enough appreciation of the time needed to establish a successful competition.

It was always going to take the likes of Manawatu, Tasman, Hawke's Bay, Northland and Southland a few years to adjust and settle.

There was a massive strength, skills and conditioning gap between those sides with mainly part-time professionals and those loaded with full-timers on Super 14 contracts.

Hawke's Bay came up to the big league with no Super 14 players. They now have 12. Southland have seen their numbers rise to 10, which could be higher next year.

Hard work, game-time, good coaching and clever use of resources have seen these two sides consistently outperform the likes of Auckland, Waikato, North Harbour and Otago.

Yet for all the progress and excitement generated this year, there is still a body of opinion that the fundamentals have not changed; that the basic tenet remains - a 14-team competition is not financially sustainable and the tough decision to cut still has to be made to protect the competition longer term.

"While the competition is enjoying a renaissance," says Bay of Plenty chief executive Jeremy Curragh, "the fact remains that the cost of running 14 teams is a massive financial battle.

"We have supported a change to go down from 14 teams even if we are one of the teams that has to go down. If we don't make this decision now, I don't think we can afford 14 teams longer term. You also have to think about how much more competitive the competition will be with 10 teams."