KEY POINTS:
A shaky semifinal win will have everyone in the capital worried that Wellington won't be able to kick their depressing habit of turning up to provincial finals in their bridesmaid dress.
The Lions, by defeating Southland 28-19, made their third consecutive final and their sixth in nine years. They haven't been so good, though, once they have made it there - winning just one title in 2000.
Compare that with Auckland who have made seven finals since the playoff format was introduced in 1992 and won the lot.
Wellington have not held up well under pressure in the past and they had some wobbly moments on Friday night just as they did in their quarter-final against Taranaki.
Southland have to be acknowledged for the role they played in applying that pressure. The Southerners were aggressive and abrasive at times, cleverly slowing things down and preventing the game from turning loose and unstructured which suits Wellington.
The problem for Wellington is that they have exposed their vulnerability to tight, grinding football. In recent weeks they haven't paid due attention to their work at the collision and have paid the price.
Their set piece has been steady without enough grunt to get on top and all that will have been noted by Canterbury - a side that can sniff out a weakness like a shark can smell blood.
Wellington would have preferred to have spent the final 20 minutes of the semifinal indulging in the instinctive, highly skilled football that they love so much. That's when they are the most dangerous - when the likes of Piri Weepu, Tamati Ellison, Cory Jane, Hosea Gear and Ma'a Nonu express themselves freely.
This is a side that can be deadly against a broken defence. They live for turnover ball which gives them the opportunity to trust their skills and attack the space.
Instead of flinging it about with gay abandon, though, Wellington were forced to scrap for the win, having found themselves 14-11 down with 10 minutes remaining.
That certainly wasn't in their master plan and they only managed to escape courtesy of yet another devastating run by Hosea Gear, whose two-try performance must have all but secured his place on the All Black tour.
His second try was the killer and showed how deadly he can be as he took the ball standing still with nothing much on.
He made something, though, because of his quick feet and upper body strength that saw him beat off the first tackle and then take off. And what has become apparent this year is that once Gear is in open space, he is next to impossible to put down.
His second try not only put Wellington back in the lead, it took his total for the season to 14, surpassing Bernie Fraser's 1981 Wellington record of 12 tries in a championship.
Wellington will look to play at a fast tempo in the final and try to get Gear as involved as they can. To support their ambition, it is possible Wellington will shift Ellison to second five and bring in Conrad Smith at centre with Nonu, Gear and Cory Jane remaining as the back three.
That would be a little tough on Tane Tu'ipulotu, who will be leaving for Newcastle after the game, but it would give the Lions the potential to play with more width and vision.
Their best performances this season have come when they have fronted at the set piece and collision and then hit on the counter-attack. That formula has worked well, allowing them to build a score and fatigue opponents before cutting loose in the final quarter.
That will be the plan at least. But having made five of the last six finals and without a title to show for it, they won't care if they secure the win by grinding out the most dour 3-0 victory.
