No one is overly confident but the early rounds of the ITM Cup have shown the nation to be much in love with provincial football.
Strip out the anomaly of a paltry crowd during a Wellington monsoon in week one and the spectator numbers stack nicely. The broadcast figures are down on last year - largely because of the overlap with the Tri Nations - but significantly up on 2008.
The news bringing the warmest flush is that sponsors are crawling back. Fears of bankruptcy, caused mainly by the lack of corporate backers, drove the change in the competition format.
"Commercially, for the fourth year in a row, we have seen an increase in support," says Hawke's Bay chief executive Mike Bishop.
Despite the Magpies struggling, Bishop says the region remains gripped by the ITM Cup and pre-sales for today's clash with Southland were ahead of expectation based on last year's attendances.
The certainty the league will split at the end of this year into two pools of seven has undoubtedly helped generate an edge.
No one wants to be in the bottom seven. It will force sponsors to consider their commitment, or at least the value of their investment, and it will make it that bit harder to retain and attract players.
The fact the established order is also being upset has given the table an unlikely and welcome look.
Counties and Northland have been the biggest surprises and the form of Southland - even though they are no longer a minnow - has heaped pressure on the likes of Auckland, Waikato and Otago.
Inevitably the smaller unions will be challenged in the back half of the season when injury strikes and their depth is tested. But that makes the competition all the more fascinating. Bay of Plenty finished seventh last year with 32 points, providing a rough indication of where the cut-off might lie this year.
If Northland and Counties can pick up another three victories in the next six weeks, they will be within touching distance of the top seven. That's a big if, but they are both well coached and playing with confidence and belief, and Northland in particular have a handful of players with potentially big futures.
Dean Budd is a former New Zealand Colt and the blindside is ideally suited to the current law interpretations where his mobility and ball-carrying can feature. Jared Payne continues to impress at fullback and, if they can get access to Rene Ranger, they have many of the components to compete with even the best teams.
Northland chief executive Jim Smillie is hopeful the slick start to the campaign will see the Taniwha play in front of bigger numbers.
"We have had crowds of between 4000 and 5000 this year," he says. "Hopefully we will see that increase by a few thousand. What we have now is certainty of what is happening in the next three years and that in return gives us certainty about contracting players."
The anecdotal feedback to the NZRU supported claims the competition is engaging its audience.
"The Southland story has been fantastic," says NZRU chief executive Steve Tew. "We have seen how much interest the Ranfurly Shield generates when won by regions that haven't had it for some time.
"There has been some good rugby played and the competition, particularly in those smaller regions that don't have Super Rugby, seems to be generating plenty of interest."
Rugby: Game winning more hearts
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