We have seen the hollowing out of a talent base already begin when not enough domestic opportunities are on offer. This is of course over in the women’s game where only the Black Ferns can make rugby their full-time job. Every player beneath them is making their own calculations. They weigh up the chance of wearing the black jersey with the other opportunities on offer. The NRLW being the major benefactor. The competition is establishing itself off the back of our paltry offer to players. It’s 1996 all over again.
Just like the school girls I coach, our school boys will be increasingly targeted by league scouts should New Zealand Rugby withdraw their offering. Without the holding pen of talent that the NPC offers, more will head overseas too. The question of overseas All Black selection then is answered by necessity, if the next generation makes their mark offshore.
Change to the high-performance framework is needed for the financial sustainability of our game. The trouble is, New Zealand Rugby has a legacy of prioritising short-term gain over long-term impact. Thirty years of this approach has led to this point. It’s hard to see that this rapid reordering won’t just compound these problems.
At a time of recession in the men’s game, rugby is opting for austerity. You would describe New Zealand Rugby’s current situation as a slack economy, with its current output well below the potential of its resources. Well, the research tells us that cuts under such conditions is a particularly dangerous policy. Contracting the game further while it sits in this precarious position may just prove fatal.
The boys currently in year 11 will now be leaving school and entering into a different reality than their fathers did. They will walk the path laid down by their grandfathers, the same path that their sisters know well. One with a much harder grind to the top.
Those that make their way there will still pull on a black jersey. Those that don’t will pull on jerseys of other countries or codes. Or perhaps, they will just pull out altogether.