Wynne Gray: Boffin needed to decipher who gets the chop

The New Zealand Rugby Union will need to add a mathematician to their staff if they go through with plans to restructure the NPC.

Probably a QC as well for the legal challenges but certainly some boffin, skilled in numerical calculations, to unravel all the extra criteria in deciding which four teams from this season will get the chop.

In announcing the back to the future series from next year, chief executive Steve Tew admitted it would not be a simple case of the bottom quartet getting the flick, leaving the leading 10 teams to play in the renamed Premier division. No siree.

Other issues would come into play to sort out a 10-team top division, a six-team division one and a 10-team Heartland competition.

Population, numbers of players, coaches and referees, union history, player development, financial structures and performance - would all be taken into account in deciding which four sides would get the blade.

But not just their work this year. Provinces' history over the last four years would be used in the decision. You have to accept these days have gone PC and now NPC dotty.

It is probably a case of the NZRU guarding against the unthinkable and having to demote one of their major unions.

They would have looked at last year's results and got very twitchy because Auckland, North Harbour, Counties and Manawatu would have been chopped.

In the rollercoaster history of the NPC, none of the major unions have taken the relegation fall though it was close for Otago in 1979 when Steve Marfell missed a handy penalty for Marlborough and the southern men squeezed home 15-13.

Now Tew tells us unions' finishing order does not necessarily mean their final place. Work that out. It all gets pretty foggy in areas the NZRU labels Solvency Test and Assessable Criteria. For that read NZRU out-clause in case one of the senior provinces misfires badly.

Under that same logic, if unions don't qualify in those two extremely grandiose-sounding areas then they should not even be playing in the premier division.

On the evidence most New Zealanders will see, the top 10 sides past the finishing post in this year's competition should qualify automatically for the 2010 start to the tournament.

It should not matter if some provinces have hot water issues in the showers, just two beer taps working at the aftermatch or only two parking spots for visiting NZRU officials. Unions have signed on to play and should be judged on those results.