KEY POINTS:
The national championship playoffs promise some down-to-the-wire-clashes between evenly matched, historic adversaries such as Hawke's Bay and Waikato and some rather more one-sided affairs - like that between playoff regulars Canterbury and debutants Tasman. When the dust settles, only four teams will be left standing. The Herald looks at how the matches stack up.
Wellington (first place) v Taranaki (eighth place)
Form line: Wellington's seemingly untroubled march to the title hit the skids in recent weeks with a round 10 loss at Otago preceded by the shakiest of Shield defences against Tasman. Taranaki rather staggered into the final playoff spot courtesy of a two-bonus-point loss to Waikato and Auckland's shock loss to Northland. Prior to that, Taranaki had posted a draw with Counties Manukau and a win over Otago in Dunedin.
Finals pedigree: Wellington: 9 wins and 5 losses.
The Lions have never failed to make the final in any season when they have made the playoffs. But they have just one title to their name in the playoffs era, in 2000. They have lost five other finals, including four of the last five.
Taranaki: 0 wins and 3 losses.
Taranaki has never lost a lower-division playoff game but in the big league they are winless, having lost semis in 1998 and 2000 and last year's quarter-final against Auckland.
Line-ups: Wellington have named Scott Fuglistaller at openside and shifted Chris Masoe to the blindside, with Thomas Waldrom starting and Rodney So'oialo warming the pine. All Blacks prop Neemia Tialata is out. Taranaki have lost centre Jonathan Spratt, who is replaced by Nathan Hohaia.
All Blacks boost: Wellington have lost prop Neemia Tialata and have not included centre Cory Jane. But Ma'a Nonu is back at second five-eighths and Rodney So'oialo is on the bench.
Taranaki have first-choice All Blacks hooker Andrew Hore back to bolster their front row.
Stats impressive: Wellington topped the team and individual try-scoring charts, with wing Hosea Gear running in 11 of their 52 tries. They were also effective defensively, with only Canterbury (9) and Southland (18) bettering their 20 conceded. Taranaki ranked eighth in attack (25 scored) and fifth-equal in defence (23 conceded).
Prediction: The Lions have been off the boil in recent weeks but expect them to heat things up again now that it's business time. Wellington 13+
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Canterbury (second place) v Tasman (seventh place)
Form Line: Canterbury head into the match against their junior - and possibly temporary - franchise partner Tasman riding a nine-game winning streak. The Cantabs are undefeated since their shock first-round home loss to Manawatu.
Beating Manawatu was something Tasman did manage, cruising to a 36-7 victory in Palmerston North last week to book their playoff spot. That victory took Tasman to a 4-1-5 regular-season record, but it was their first in four matches, following defeats by Wellington and Southland and a draw with Otago.
Finals pedigree: Canterbury: 8 wins and 8 losses
Champions in 1997, 2001 and 2004, Canterbury have otherwise somewhat specialised in dipping out at the semifinal stage. Six times since 1994 they have been bombed in the semis, but only once have they lost a quarter-final, in 2006 against Wellington.
Tasman: 0-0
The Makos are making their first and quite possibly their last appearance in the playoffs.
Line-ups: Stephen Brett's on-again off-again season is off again with the niggling quadriceps injury that has truncated his campaign ruling him out. Tasman's big guns Kade Poki, Miah Nikora, Kahn Fotuali'i and Ben May all start.
All Blacks boost: Canterbury have Greg Somerville back in the front row and some bloke called R. McCaw coming off the bench. Brad Thorn makes his debut/farewell appearance at lock for Tasman.
Stats impressive: Canterbury scored 38 tries in the regular season, second only to Wellington's 52. They conceded just nine - nine less than next-best defenders Southland. Wing James Patterson was their top scorer with six tries. Tasman scored 21 tries and conceded 23, ranking them 10th in attack and fifth-equal in defence.
Prediction: Tasman's defence has been a tough nut to crack but Canterbury racked up 44 points when the teams met in round six and should have little trouble doing so again. Canterbury 13+
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Bay of Plenty (fourth place) v Southland (fifth place)
Form Line: The Steamers won their first four before running into red hot Wellington. The 48-12 defeat they suffered in that match started a run of just two wins in six but their fast start and a two-point win over Southland in round nine was enough to give them home advantage for the rematch.
Southland head into the match having lost their past two and three of their past five. Their last convincing win was the 43-7 round seven demolition of North Harbour in Invercargill.
Finals pedigree: Southland: 0 wins and 2 losses.
Quarter-finalists the past two years, Southland have yet to progress beyond the first round of the playoffs, being hammered 45-3 by Wellington last year and pipped 24-12 by Waikato in 2006.
Bay of Plenty: 0-2.
Have made a semifinal, going down 44-12 to Canterbury in Christchurch in 2004. Also-rans last year, they did make the quarters in 2006 when they were thrashed 46-14 by Auckland.
Line-ups: The Steamers have fitness worries in midfielder Nigel Hunt, first five-eighths Mike Delany and prop Joe Savage. But all three have been named to start. Southland have a settled side, with All Blacks halfback Jimmy Cowan relegating brother Scott to the bench and props Jamie Mackintosh and Chris King anchoring a formidable scrum.
All Blacks boost: Southland have lone All Black Jimmy Cowan back at halfback. Bay of Plenty have no All Blacks to accommodate.
Stats impressive: Only Auckland, Counties and Manawatu (all 18) scored fewer tries than Southland's 20. But only Canterbury (9) conceded fewer than their 18. The Steamers had the sixth-best attack (28 tries) and the fourth-worst defence (35 tries).
Prediction: A clash of styles with one of the worst attacking teams and best defensive teams taking on one of the better attacking but worst defensive teams. Home advantage should prove crucial and Southland probably lack the gumption to take their chance. Steamers 12-
* * *
Hawkes Bay (third place) v Waikato (sixth place)
Form Line: The Magpies lost two of their first three but went 6-1 for the remainder of the season, losing only to Canterbury in round nine over that stretch. Waikato snuck into the playoffs with just four wins but two of those have come in successive weeks, against Taranaki and Otago.
Finals pedigree: Hawkes Bay 1-1.
A union with extensive finals experience in division two, Hawkes Bay made the playoffs in the top division for the first time last year. They pipped Waikato 38-35 in a thriller before being smashed 38-3 by eventual champions Auckland in an Eden Park semifinal.
Waikato 7-8.
Champions in 1992 and 2006, Waikato have also lost twofinals (1998, 2002). They have lostfive times in the semis but only oncein the quarters - last year against Hawkes Bay.
Line-ups: Hawkes Bay welcome back first five-eighths Matt Berquist, who has missed the last four matches with a hand injury. Waikato have fitness concerns over captain Liam Messam (thigh) and first five-eighths Stephen Donald, who is almost certainly ruled out with a rib injury.
All Blacks Boost: Mils Muliaina is the last of Waikato's All Blacks to return, joining Richard Kahui, Sitiveni Sivivatu and Sione Lauaki. Hawkes Bay have no All Blacks.
Stats impressive: Magpies backs Zac Guildford and Jason Kupa have five tries apiece out of a team total of 33. That number gave the Magpies the fourth-best attack for the regular season and they also had the fourth-best defence, conceding just 22.
Waikato had no problems scoring tries, ranking third with 35, but their defence leaked 30, fifth-most in the competition.
Prediction: The best match-up of last season looks like being another humdinger again this year. Waikato's All Blacks could give them the edge but they could also prove a disruption. Hawkes Bay have no such distractions and have won the last three matches between the teams in Napier. Magpies 12-
