Lee Stensness: Home support major player for Waikato

Now that we are at the business end of the inaugural Air New Zealand Cup, and three of the four semifinalists have been found, it would seem a suitable time to assess the chances of the remaining contenders.

Wellington's demolition of Canterbury on Friday evening has seen their stocks rise - though it was an under-strength Canterbury side and Wellington will not play at home again throughout the finals.

That being the case, the Lions' lineout will come under a lot of pressure and so will their composure. I'm not sure they can withstand that type of pressure away from home. Wellington can produce a physically imposing performance at any time, and therefore an upset, but I wonder if Friday's was that performance.

The next team to progress were Auckland who, for me, are one of the two top contenders, the other being Waikato. Auckland have world-class ability sprinkled throughout the team, starting from Keven Mealamu and Ali Williams in the tight five through to Doug Howlett and Joe Rokocoko out wide.

They are complemented by a large group of experienced players who have won at this level before, many of them more than once.

Auckland are executing a game plan that is exciting to watch, and evidently to play, which exploits the fire power they have right across the park, and that game plan is stitched together nicely by accurate loose forwards like Braid, Tololima-Auva'a and Blowers.

Possible weaknesses maybe occasionally being too expansive (however it is also their style and strength) and goal kicking, although Ben Atiga has improved and Brent Ward is certainly capable of kicking the ones that matter.

Waikato must be favourites, having the home advantage all the way to the final and that home support has always been a factor in lifting their performance.

Like Auckland, they have a large group of seasoned footballers with some game breakers thrown in, specifically Mils Muliaina, Sitiveni Sivivatu and Sione Lauaki. The return of Keith Robinson and the retention of Jono Gibbes provide significant steel to the tight five; questions will be asked of their scrum, though.

Meanwhile, the question of who takes the remaining semifinal spot will be answered between Harbour and Otago this afternoon. If Harbour make it through, it is difficult to see them going all the way simply because only a great team holds the Ranfurly Shield and wins the Air New Zealand Cup in one year. While clearly Harbour are a good side, they are a few years and a couple of players shy of being great.

If it is Otago who make it through to face Auckland, then the memories of the heavy defeat they suffered on Eden Park a few weeks ago may be too fresh for them have much confidence. Their reinforced forward pack will provide them with some self-belief and some quality possession but the suspicion is that they rely too heavily on Nick Evans for attacking impetus and opposition teams know and plan for that.

For me, it will be Waikato and Auckland in the final at Hamilton and, amongst the din of those bells, the cry of "Orrrklaaannnd" will stand up and be heard.