KEY POINTS:
Logic says the semifinals should be won by Wellington and Canterbury. They are Super 14 franchise bases, have more player resources, more money and more returning All Blacks.
But the great thing about sport is that nothing is a given - Hawkes Bay and particularly Southland have a starter's chance of winning. As usual it will be decided up front.
Hawkes Bay have a sound scrum and if they can handle the destructive Wyatt Crockett they should be set. The Magpie lineout has been very consistent throughout the season.
They have such faith in it that late in last week's quarter-final they kicked to the corner for a throw-in rather than kick a three-pointer. Knowing they had a reliable lineout gave the Magpies the opportunity to eat up the final minutes of the game.
Based on this platform the looseforwards and halfback Danny Lee have been free to rove, winning quick ball and creating opportunities for the talented young backs outside.
The problem of playing against Canterbury is that the red-and-blacks have peaked nicely for the finals. They like to strangle the life out of teams by frustrating them at the breakdown - in this area, Richie McCaw's introduction to the starting line-up will bring a huge edge.
The Canterbury attacking patterns are simple, direct and deadly for teams which slip in concentration for one minute of the 80. Hawkes Bay don't mind conceding territory and back themselves to score tries from deep. This may come unstuck against Canterbury.
So should Hawkes Bay change things? No chance - if anything, they should be more adventurous and attempt to upset the Cantabs' pattern.
Wellington on paper is the best team left in the competition but I think they are vulnerable. Sure they score plenty of points, but they concede a few as well. I think Southland have the talent up front to take them on at scrum and lineout. If they succeed in those set-piece encounters and keep playing with the passion of last week against Bay of Plenty, there could be an upset.
The question for tomorrow's match is: Can Southland lift themselves again or are they happy just to have made the semifinals? In the Ranfurly Shield challenge against Auckland they were pathetic and overcome by the occasion - I hope they have learned something since.
Should the Southlanders rely on the pack and try to grind their way to a win? Again no chance - if anything, these tactics would fall into Wellington's hands.
If any team can break out when under pressure it's Jamie Joseph's men. The way to beat this great team is by applying constant pressure and forcing errors with power and pace. If the Southland forwards can put Alby Mathewson and Piri Weepu under pressure opportunities may occur.
Will the form of individuals have an impact upon selections for the All Blacks' end-of-year tour? I expect not - Graham Henry has already indicated that the team has long been selected.
So the players from Waikato, Auckland and those other unions that missed the semifinals are safe knowing they can't play their way out. The issue will be for the likes of Hosea Gear and Cory Jane who may be on the tour list but could play their way out of selection or, worse, get injured.
There will be several new All Blacks named next week and expect a fair few to come from Wellington and Canterbury. Any from Hawkes Bay and Southland? Maybe Hawkes Bay's fullback Israel Dagg, their prop Fakaanaua Taumalolo and the Southland captain Jamie Mackintosh. Their time should come, but maybe not on this tour.
With a practice match against the New Zealand Barbarians next week, Henry and co have signalled their belief that form from Super 14 may be more important for All Black selections than how a player has gone in the Air New Zealand Cup - it's sad but there's the reality.
I have enjoyed games in recent weeks but sadly too many matches in this competition have been of a poor standard. Fortunately we have seen Hawkes Bay and Southland come through and add some spice to what would have been a pretty dreary past few months.
