John Drake: Journey into the unknown

Tana Umaga's experience and ability at the breakdown may give Wellington the edge in midfield. Marty Melville / Getty Images

Tomorrow night's national championship final is set up to be a belter. Form shows the two best teams have made it and the stadium in Hamilton is probably the best for viewing rugby in the country - and it will be full.

Both teams are armed with more than enough to win - sound set-piece, aggression and accuracy at the breakdown and killer backs on attack and defence.

The unknown is the mental factor, which is so vital in finals.

Which team has prepared better mentally, which team wants it more than the other and which team will respond better to the pressure of the occasion.

To say this is just another game is rubbish. For the team ahead on the scoreboard, the minutes will seem to pass very slowly; for the team behind, it will just fly.

So it is pressure which may decide who comes away with the trophy.

At scrum time, Waikato have improved steadily through the season - no stars, just prime beef all working together.

Wellington may have the edge here, but only if Neemia Tialata passes a fitness test. Their coach, John Plumtree, will be desperate for him to play as his form has been such that he must now rate in the A-list of the All Black front-row options.

Frankly I wondered if Tialata had all that is required to get to the top. This season he has well and truly proved me wrong and Waikato will be happy if he misses the match.

The lineouts will be a physical and mental war. Wellington are accurate on their own ball and have a variety of options. They are also one of the best around at stealing opposition ball, both legally and with a few tricks.

They close the space down the middle of the lineout with subtlety and are rarely penalised. Waikato need Tom Willis' accuracy of throw and cool head to succeed here. The return of Keith Robinson has changed their thinking at the lineout.

Before, they lacked confidence and struggled to win their own ball. With him, things are going better. He has a mental attitude unique these days in New Zealand rugby; no tricky stuff, no thrills, no downtown style - just a steel-hard attitude and a physical approach to match.

If Wellington decide to target Robinson, sparks will fly and there could be casualties.

But overall, on recent form, Wellington may shade Waikato in the set-pieces, so the war at ruck and maul will be vital. Both teams have dominated this area against opponents this season with aggression and technique.

Warren Gatland has Waikato getting a lot of players to the breakdown, which has created quick ball when attacking and slow ball for the opposition when defending.

The urgency and excitement of Waikato at the breakdown has been crucial to their success.

Wellington's aim will be to blunt this with brutality and fitness, which they have shown often this season. Guys like Jerry Collins and Rodney So'oialo thrive on this stuff and the rest are keen to follow.

The choice of Ben Herring at No 7 is a good one. He'll have a decent battle with Marty Holah and I wonder whether Chris Masoe would have been as effective in the same role.

And Masoe will certainly make a strong impact when he comes on, presumably for about the final 20 minutes.

The Nos 9 and 10 contest could decide the outcome. Piri Weepu and Byron Kelleher will both want to make the other's night miserable with physical harassment and a continuous verbal barrage.

If Waikato get some parity up front, and Kelleher's mind is right, I think he may have the edge. Both Stephen Donald and Jimmy Gopperth are similar first five-eighths, in that they create opportunities for themselves and their outsides but both are prone to moments of inaccuracy which can be very costly.

Both will be targeted by opposition coaches as areas to exploit. Again, the guy who remains cool and handles the pressure may decide which way the match goes.

Out further and back, both teams are chock full of class.

The battle in midfield of Tana Umaga, Conrad Smith, against David Hill and Richard Kahui will be worth watching in its own right.

Two older guys with little to prove in Umaga and Hill, a player on the comeback in Smith and a comer in Kahui.

Umaga's experience and ability at the breakdown may be the key, although Kahui will be a nuisance for Wellington and he is now doing too many things right too often for it to be a fluke.

Hill's kicking game should take the pressure off Donald, and Smith is the type of player who appears anonymous until he suddenly rips a complacent defence apart.

All the wingers are hungry, have high work rates in seeking opportunities. I wonder if sometimes they are not quite with the pattern in defence and both coaches will again be looking to put the ball behind Sitiveni Sivivatu and Ma'a Nonu and force them to run from behind their support, which may lead to errors and turnovers.

Mils Muliaina's cool head may be the difference for the battle at fullback. He knows when to run or kick and his calming words to the others will be vital.

Nonu has been explosive in the last few weeks but I still wonder if he can dominate against a higher level of opposition. This game may show us more about his character and ability. For the sake of New Zealand rugby, I hope he proves me wrong.

So it is all set up for a special final. All Black selections may be in the balance for the likes of Kahui and Liam Messam - but it will be a total team effort which will decide the victor.

I think Wellington have a slight edge with personnel and momentum.

The home ground and mental toughness of the likes of Willis, Jono Gibbes, Robinson and Muliaina may be enough to prove me wrong.