John Drake: After all the hard work

The national championship has been a path through the unknown for much of the season.

A host of new teams, missing All Blacks, a radically changed format, and a new group of officials and referees have made it hard work for many fans.

Some games have been rubbish; some officiating has been difficult to understand, leaving most spectators wondering if a trip to the optometrist was required.

The big bonus of the Air New Zealand Cup has again been a group of new faces looking for Super 14 contracts next year - only this time these players may have reason to stick in the rural provinces rather than be lured to the Super 14 franchise base teams.

The likes of Manawatu and Tasman were supposed to be annihilated but managed to hold their own, if not get wins on the board, although I wonder if some of the big guns played down to their level, rather than vice-versa.

At the quarter-final stage we have the usual suspects starting to assert their dominance. The draw seems to favour the northern unions, Auckland and North Harbour looking to have the easier run. Bay of Plenty have shown solid improvement over the season with a forward pack of size and good technique.

The backs have developed the ability to be creative and score tries, something missing early in the season.

But Auckland are a big step up from their recent opposition. They have 12 All Blacks in their starting XV and will have too much firepower all over the park to allow an upset - although it's worth noting that last week's match against Canterbury showed Auckland needs the All Blacks to get into top gear.

North Harbour should be over the Ranfurly Shield celebrations by Sunday afternoon, shouldn't they?

Otago seem to have gone off the boil in recent weeks and even with the return of Carl Hayman, Anton Oliver and James Ryan, I question their ability to create try-scoring chances.

To achieve this Otago need Nick Evans to bring his top game, something which seems to have been missing in the last few weeks.

North Harbour have a flaky lineout and a wobbly scrum, even with Tony Woodcock back. They won the shield largely on Canterbury's shocking form and came back to reality against Waikato last week.

Despite this, they should have enough to beat Otago. But knowing Harbour they might crash and burn.

Waikato have all the ingredients to go all the way. The scrum is solid, the lineout may need Tom Willis's steady throw but is good enough to get by, and the team are ruthless and accurate at rucks and mauls.

So it's a big ask for Southland. Say what you like about southern pride, I suspect they will just be making up the numbers.

Wellington seem to enjoy playing Canterbury and get more than their fair share of wins. Maybe the Cantabs take them lightly?

Whatever it is, despite home advantage to Wellington, I think Canterbury will win. The Canterbury scrum, lineout and accuracy at the breakdown are better than Wellington and this will be the difference.

Oh, and Daniel Carter and Richie McCaw might help as well - they are probably the two most influential players in the world, and Wellington will be hard-pressed to neutralise them both for the entire 80 minutes.

Sure Wellington's scrum is not as shonky as it has been, and they now play with discipline most of the time, but I wonder if they have the patience and concentration to win if Canterbury show the form they displayed against Auckland last weekend.

I will be interested to see how Neemia Tialata and Wyatt Crockett sort things out at scrum time. Tialata's game has matured and he is now rated; Crockett is a comer with enthusiasm to match his huge physique and sound technique.

Piri Weepu v Andy Ellis will be interesting.

Weepu is combative, physical and can make something out of nothing. Ellis passes off the deck - unusual these days - and fits the structured Canterbury game plan.

This game should be the match of the round. The winners face the prospect of Waikato at home the next week, and the losers will head for home and the beach.

After the disappointment of the shield, I wonder if Canterbury might want the next stage more than Wellington.