KEY POINTS:
Here's the question which has been exercising the minds of the mischievous out in rugbyland: Can both Tasman and Northland, front and centre in the great Air New Zealand Cup shambles, make it to the quarter-finals this weekend?
The short answer is yes, but it'll take a few
pieces of the puzzle to fall into place along the way.
We'll get to the shakedown later. Even if the bulk of the speculation surrounding the two unions is more to do with financial than footballing matters, it would still be a hoot after all the sound and fury of the last couple of weeks.
Those who like poking the odd stick between the spokes will be rubbing their hands at the prospect of the two teams pencilled in to be bumped out next year getting to the business end. Equally there will be smirks if two or three others, who seem to be safely inside the New Zealand Rugby Union corridor of long-term cup certainty, head for the beach.
Tonight's two games - Southland hosting Canterbury and Hawkes Bay at home to Bay of Plenty - are actually irrelevant to the Tasman-Northland situation (not forgetting Otago, who have gone for a mighty skate this winter, but still retain mathematical hopes of making the quarter-finals).
The four teams tonight are all into the playoffs, but three of them - Canterbury being the odd one out - are angling for a home tie.
Canterbury cannot be bumped out of second spot, irrespective of the result in Invercargill, as they are six points behind leaders Wellington and nine ahead of Hawkes Bay.
The other element to factor in is the winners of last night's Waikato-Taranaki clash are certain to make the quarters. The losers might also sneak in, but we may not know until late Sunday afternoon.
Only one other game this weekend has no bearing on the issue: Counties Manukau play North Harbour at Pukekohe tomorrow afternoon, both having long been off the playoff pace.
Now to the nitty gritty. This is a case of dropping a pile of permutations into a pot, stirring them about to find out what rises to the surface.
Mathematicians would be able to produce a chart of probabilities for the various options, but as all rugby folk know it means next to nothing here.
Bonus points can be critical, so too points differential, but let's try and keep it simple.
By the time Manawatu and Tasman kick off in Palmerston North at 2.35pm tomorrow, here's what they - and we - will know with absolutely certainty: Wellington, Canterbury, Hawkes Bay, Bay of Plenty, Southland and last night's winner are in the last eight.
So let's take it from the top, and in order of events, starting with ...
TASMAN:
If Manawatu beat Tasman tomorrow they might finish the cup off the bottom of the table; it will almost certainly mean curtains for the Tasman operation.
You can't have one of the two partners so implacably opposed to the deal, and feeling trodden on from over the other side of the cavernous divide at the top of the South Island and expect things to suddenly turn all lovey-dovey.
If Tasman win, last night's losers are toast. If they nab a bonus point, they'll move into seventh, ahead of the no-longer-mighty Auks, whose 136 points for total is worse than all bar Counties-Manukau this season. Next up it's ...
OTAGO:
The southern men step out at Carisbrook against Wellington. It should be no contest. Otago have been dreadfully disappointing; Wellington, by and large, hugely impressive.
A Wellington win and Tasman breathe slightly easier. Otago will be gone.
An Otago win might not be enough; bag a bonus point and they could put their noses ahead of Auckland on differential, sliding Auckland out of the top eight.
(Remember, they didn't meet in the round robin meaning differential is the first decider in the event of points being level. If two teams had met, the winner of their game gets the nod).
But hold on because ...
NORTHLAND:
Here come the Wayne Peters-less Taniwha storming onto Eden Park on Sunday afternoon. Again, if they lose they're history and Auckland are confirmed in the quarters.
But if they beat Auckland - and either get a bonus point, or deny Auckland one - they'll automatically sit above them by dint of the win (see four paragraphs above).
So it's entirely possible the points table could finish with two of Tasman, Northland and Otago in the quarter-finals, but not three. Tasman's chances are good; Northland's 50-50; Otago's slim.
If you're neutral, you can't ask for much more in terms of a competition which boils down to the final match of a 10-week programme.
And if you've absorbed all that, go and lie down in a dark room for a while, and gently rub your temples.
