Chris Rattue: How to spin a victory of sorts out of defeat

Sport has an easy whipping boy when it comes to predicting scoring blowouts.

Most sports that is, except cricket.

We've all done it.

"I reckon it will be a cricket score," you say before a rugby game such as the All Blacks versus Japan.

Just what cricket does in these circumstances is another matter, although serious consideration might now be given to using Shane Warne's off-field scoring records from his favourite hobby - and I'm not talking about darts although the numbers are fairly similar.

Predictions of cricket blowouts could become "Day of Shane" or "Storm Warnies" thanks to his recently revealed scoreboard involving the opposition sex.

But apart from that, cricket has nowhere to turn. And you're liable to end up sitting on your own if you rock up to a cricket test and start telling everyone in sight it's going to be a cricket score.

The tricky part, after a one-sided footy game, is working out if it really was the predicted cricket score or not.

And in this regard, predicting a cricket score in the first place tends to soften the blow.

Take the Air New Zealand Cup.

There were predictions that the first round would see the newcomers suffer something akin to what happened to the South African cricket team in Colombo a few days ago.

But when Hawkes Bay and Manawatu "only" lost by 45-0 and 41-10, it was seen as some sort of victory and an encouraging sign for the underdogs.

Yes, for sure, Manawatu had stirring patches against Auckland, and they were able to make the champions look shabby at times, especially in the forward grunt department.

But hello - 41-10 is 41-10 and the main message from the game was that for all the solid build-up work Manawatu mustered, they lacked the flair to trouble the big boys. So 41-10 ain't a real cricket score. But Manawatu were still dismissed.

As for Canterbury's 45-0 win over Hawkes Bay, that really is a cricket score - as in Australia batting against Bangladesh after a couple of overs.

The bottom line is this. The new national rugby competition will have to involve genuine and well-spread contests if it is going to catch on, and help the game to flourish in the provinces.

You only have to look at Northland to see how endless and demoralising defeats can leave the game withering on the vine. A 10-41 defeat ain't seen as any sort of victory in those parts any more - the public is very rarely fooled in the end on these matters.

Counties-Manukau and Tasman were a different story in the opening round, especially the former who could so easily have tipped Otago over. Tasman, for all the praise, missed a gilt-edged chance against a North Harbour team which has the wobbles.

So while there were certainly the odd encouraging signs, the Air NZ Cup desperately needs the prospect of many more repeats of the close Mt Smart Stadium duel. The public is already tired of a lopsided and heavily scripted NPC.

The lesser lights need to feel they have a genuine chance, while the usual title-winning suspects need to face far greater dangers than Canterbury and Auckland did in round one.

The fact is that Hawkes Bay and Manawatu got belted out of the park in the opening round and remain well down a food chain that begins with the large if not world-class (compared with soccer, etc) sums available to rugby players in Europe and Japan.

Hawkes Bay, after months of adrenalin-inducing preparation, couldn't notch any points in front of their home crowd. As hard as anyone might try, there's no spinning your way around that.